12:35 PM ET
NYMvsWSH
J. TongC. Early
NYX Lean NYM · 54% win prob
New York Mets holds a 10.9-pt model edge (Washington Nationals 47.5 vs New York Mets 58.4). Confidence 74% (medium data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors NYM
NYM AdvantageWSH AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
NYMSTARTERMets are 1-1 in Jonah Tong's last 2 startsTeam result over his last 2 stored starts.
WSHINJURYNationals are without Connelly EarlyOut · Left Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 24
WSHINJURYNationals are without Matt WaldronOut · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
NYM Starter
J. Tong
Confirmed
WSH Starter
C. Early
Confirmed
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
1:10 PM ET
PITvsDET
K. YatesJ. Verlander
NYX Lean DET · 52% win prob
Detroit Tigers holds a 13.5-pt model edge (Detroit Tigers 59.5 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 46.0). Confidence 74% (medium data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors DET
PIT AdvantageDET AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
STARTERKirby Yates has been piling up strikeouts33.3% strikeout rate over 15 days · as of Sep 26
DETINJURYTigers are without Burch SmithOut · Right Shoulder · club IL list as of Sep 24
PITINJURYPirates are without Endy RodríguezOut · Left Hip · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
PIT Starter
K. Yates
Confirmed
DET Starter
J. Verlander
Confirmed
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
3:07 PM ET
CINvsTOR
R. LowderT. Yesavage
NYX Lean TOR · 71% win prob
Toronto Blue Jays holds a 26.7-pt model edge (Toronto Blue Jays 63.9 vs Cincinnati Reds 37.2). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors TOR
CIN AdvantageTOR AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
STARTERTrey Yesavage has been missing bats31.6% whiff rate over 15 days · as of Sep 26
CINSTARTERReds are 2-3 in Rhett Lowder's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
TORSTARTERBlue Jays are 1-3 in Trey Yesavage's last 4 startsTeam result over his last 4 stored starts.
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
CIN Starter
R. Lowder
Confirmed
TOR Starter
T. Yesavage
Confirmed
Confidence
High
Model Confidence
4:05 PM ET
LADvsSF
B. SnellM. Wilkinson
NYX Lean LAD · 61% win prob
Los Angeles Dodgers holds a 8.7-pt model edge (San Francisco Giants 61.6 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 70.2). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors LAD
LAD AdvantageSF AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
STARTERBlake Snell has been missing bats33.3% whiff rate over 15 days · as of Sep 26
STARTERMatt Wilkinson has been piling up strikeouts28.6% strikeout rate over 15 days · as of Sep 26
LADSTARTERDodgers are 3-1 in Blake Snell's last 4 startsTeam result over his last 4 stored starts.
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
LAD Starter
B. Snell
Confirmed
SF Starter
M. Wilkinson
Confirmed
Confidence
Moderate
Model Confidence
4:10 PM ET
TEXvsMIN
N. EovaldiB. Ober
NYX Lean MIN · 52% win prob
Minnesota Twins holds a 23.5-pt model edge (Minnesota Twins 58.5 vs Texas Rangers 35.0). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors MIN
TEX AdvantageMIN AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
WHIFFHitters have missed 9.5% of their swings against the Changeup from Bailey Ober over his last three starts, down 12.8 percentage points from his prior starts42 swings recently, 296 before · Measured through his start on Sep 15
MINSTARTERTwins are 2-3 in Bailey Ober's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
WHIFFHitters have missed 20.4% of their swings against the Splitter from Nathan Eovaldi over his last three starts, down 11.7 percentage points from his prior starts54 swings recently, 374 before · Measured through his start on Aug 7
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
TEX Starter
N. Eovaldi
Confirmed
MIN Starter
B. Ober
Confirmed
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
4:10 PM ET
ATLvsMIA
B. SuterJ. Ralston
NYX Lean ATL · 54% win prob
Miami Marlins holds a 10.3-pt model edge (Miami Marlins 59.8 vs Atlanta Braves 49.4). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors ATL
ATL AdvantageMIA AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
STARTERJack Ralston has been giving up free passes17.4% walk rate over 15 days · as of Sep 26
ATLINJURYBraves are without Spencer StriderOut · Right Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 24
MIAINJURYMarlins are without Andrew NardiOut · Left Rib Cage · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
ATL Starter
B. Suter
Confirmed
MIA Starter
J. Ralston
Confirmed
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
7:10 PM ET
STLvsMIL
Q. MathewsD. May
NYX Lean MIL · 52% win prob
Milwaukee Brewers holds a 12.2-pt model edge (Milwaukee Brewers 53.2 vs St. Louis Cardinals 41.0). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors MIL
STL AdvantageMIL AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
PITCH MIXDustin May has leaned more heavily on his Sinker lately — 37.4% over his last three starts, up from 18.5% beforehand71 pitches recently, 399 before · Measured through his start on Sep 22
PITCH MIXDustin May has gone to his Four-Seam less often lately — 13.2% over his last three starts, down from 25.5% beforehand25 pitches recently, 549 before · Measured through his start on Sep 22
STLSTARTERCardinals are 2-3 in Quinn Mathews's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
STL Starter
Q. Mathews
Confirmed
MIL Starter
D. May
Confirmed
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
7:10 PM ET
CLEvsKC
T. BibeeM. Wacha
NYX Lean CLE · 51% win prob
Kansas City Royals holds a 13.1-pt model edge (Kansas City Royals 58.6 vs Cleveland Guardians 45.5). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors CLE
CLE AdvantageKC AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
KCSTARTERRoyals are 3-2 in Michael Wacha's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
CLESTARTERGuardians are 3-2 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
WHIFFHitters have missed 15.4% of their swings against the Changeup from Michael Wacha over his last three starts, down 10.8 percentage points from his prior starts39 swings recently, 371 before · Measured through his start on Sep 20
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
CLE Starter
T. Bibee
Confirmed
KC Starter
M. Wacha
Confirmed
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
7:10 PM ET
COLvsCWS
J. QuintanaD. Martin
NYX Lean CWS · 57% win prob
Chicago White Sox holds a 42.7-pt model edge (Chicago White Sox 72.4 vs Colorado Rockies 29.7). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors CWS
COL AdvantageCWS AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
CWSSTARTERWhite Sox are 1-3 in Davis Martin's last 4 startsTeam result over his last 4 stored starts.
COLINJURYRockies are without Chase DollanderOut · Right Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 24
CWSINJURYWhite Sox are without Jordan LeasureOut · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
COL Starter
J. Quintana
Confirmed
CWS Starter
D. Martin
Confirmed
Confidence
Moderate
Model Confidence
7:15 PM ET
TBvsPHI
G. JaxT. Mayza
NYX Lean PHI · 52% win prob
Tampa Bay Rays holds a 20.5-pt model edge (Philadelphia Phillies 26.6 vs Tampa Bay Rays 47.1). Confidence 41% (low data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors PHI
Starting PitcherNot enough data
TB AdvantagePHI AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
STARTERGriffin Jax has been missing bats31.8% whiff rate over 15 days · as of Sep 26
TBSTARTERRays are 2-3 in Griffin Jax's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
PHIINJURYPhillies are without Caleb KilianOut · Left Oblique · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
TB Starter
G. Jax
Confirmed
PHI Starter
T. Mayza
Expected
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
8:40 PM ET
ARIvsSD
C. BurnesW. Buehler
NYX Lean SD · 52% win prob
D-backs are without Tyler Locklear
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors SD
Starting PitcherNot enough data
ARI AdvantageSD AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
ARIINJURYD-backs are without Tyler LocklearOut · Right Thumb · club IL list as of Sep 24
SDINJURYPadres are without Luis RengifoOut · Right Knee · club IL list as of Sep 24
ARIWIN STREAKArizona Diamondbacks have won 6 straight — the longest active streak in MLBLeads the next-longest active streak by 3. · Through Sep 25
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
ARI Starter
C. Burnes
Expected
SD Starter
W. Buehler
Confirmed
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
9:40 PM ET
LAAvsSEA
R. JohnsonK. Anderson
NYX Lean SEA · 60% win prob
Ryan Johnson has leaned more heavily on his Sweeper lately — 35.9% over his last three starts, up from 20.8% beforehand
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors SEA
LAA AdvantageSEA AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
PITCH MIXRyan Johnson has leaned more heavily on his Sweeper lately — 35.9% over his last three starts, up from 20.8% beforehand102 pitches recently, 262 before · Measured through his start on Sep 20
SEAINJURYMariners are without Will WilsonOut · Left Thumb · club IL list as of Sep 24
SEAINJURYMariners are without Luke RaleyOut · Left Forearm · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
LAA Starter
R. Johnson
Confirmed
SEA Starter
K. Anderson
Confirmed
Confidence
Moderate
Model Confidence
9:40 PM ET
HOUvsATH
H. WesneskiJ. Perkins
NYX Lean HOU · 51% win prob
Jack Perkins has gone to his Four-Seam less often lately — 14.9% over his last three starts, down from 29.3% beforehand
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors HOU
HOU AdvantageATH AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
PITCH MIXJack Perkins has gone to his Four-Seam less often lately — 14.9% over his last three starts, down from 29.3% beforehand37 pitches recently, 306 before · Measured through his start on Sep 20
ATHINJURYAthletics are without Nick KurtzOut · Right Thumb · club IL list as of Sep 24
ATHINJURYAthletics are without Mark Leiter Jr.Out · Right Hip · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
HOU Starter
H. Wesneski
Confirmed
ATH Starter
J. Perkins
Confirmed
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
3:05 PM ET
NYMvsWSH
S. ManaeaD. Herz
NYX Lean WSH · 50% win prob
Sean Manaea has been piling up strikeouts
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors WSH
NYM AdvantageWSH AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
STARTERSean Manaea has been piling up strikeouts29.2% strikeout rate over 15 days · as of Sep 23
NYMSTARTERMets are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
WSHINJURYNationals are without Connelly EarlyOut · Left Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
NYM Starter
S. Manaea
Probable
WSH Starter
D. Herz
Probable
Confidence
Limited
Model Confidence
3:05 PM ET
LADvsSF
B. StewartB. Tidwell
NYX Lean LAD · 67% win prob
Blade Tidwell has leaned more heavily on his Four-Seam lately — 40% over his last three starts, up from 28% beforehand
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors LAD
Starting PitcherNot enough data
LAD AdvantageSF AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
PITCH MIXBlade Tidwell has leaned more heavily on his Four-Seam lately — 40% over his last three starts, up from 28% beforehand92 pitches recently, 153 before · Measured through his start on Sep 21
PITCH MIXBlade Tidwell has gone to his Sweeper less often lately — 21.3% over his last three starts, down from 33.1% beforehand49 pitches recently, 181 before · Measured through his start on Sep 21
SFINJURYGiants are without Rafael DeversOut · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
LAD Starter
B. Stewart
Expected
SF Starter
B. Tidwell
Expected
Confidence
High
Model Confidence
3:05 PM ET
TBvsPHI
N. MartinezZ. Wheeler
NYX Lean PHI · 57% win prob
Nick Martinez has gone to his Changeup less often lately — 16.7% over his last three starts, down from 26.9% beforehand
ANALYSIS SUMMARY ⓘEdge favors PHI
TB AdvantagePHI AdvantageLeague Avg
MATCHUP SIGNALS
PITCH MIXNick Martinez has gone to his Changeup less often lately — 16.7% over his last three starts, down from 26.9% beforehand39 pitches recently, 602 before · Measured through his start on Sep 22
PHIINJURYPhillies are without Caleb KilianOut · Left Oblique · club IL list as of Sep 24
PHIINJURYPhillies are without Johan RojasOut · Right Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 24
KEY CONTEXT (PREGAME)
TB Starter
N. Martinez
Probable
PHI Starter
Z. Wheeler
Probable
Confidence
Moderate
Model Confidence