AnalysisGame Detail

HOU vs ATH — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

HOU—

PREGAME

9:40 PM ET

ATH—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

51% HOU

49% ATH

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

HOU

Toss-up

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 9:40 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Astros prevents runs at a higher clip

Astros holds the situational and health edge

Astros has been the hotter lineup

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanHOU

Win Prob51%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

S. Matchup Signals

PITCH MIXJack Perkins has gone to his Four-Seam less often lately — 14.9% over his last three starts, down from 29.3% beforehand37 pitches recently, 306 before · Measured through his start on Sep 20
ATHINJURYAthletics are without Nick KurtzOut · Right Thumb · club IL list as of Sep 24
ATHINJURYAthletics are without Mark Leiter Jr.Out · Right Hip · club IL list as of Sep 24

B. Why NYX Leans HOU

Starting Pitcher Edge

51%49%

Bullpen Edge

52%48%

Offense Edge

54%46%

Run Prevention

72%28%

Context & Health

59%41%

Edge Count5 / 0

C. Pitching Matchup

HOURHP

H. Wesneski

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 12.5%BB 5.0%

Whiff 13.7%CSW 25.7%

Recent Form

ATHRHP

J. Perkins

D. Bullpen Status

HOU BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

8 relievers used

20.0 IP used

ATH BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

8 relievers used

14.7 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

HOU+7 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

HOU4-6 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

ATH3-7 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen strainThe Houston Astros bullpen is stretched thin — 31.1 innings this week at a 4.60 ERA.Heavy recent workload and recent damage; the late innings are the watch tonight.
Power surgeIsaac Paredes has 6 home runs in his last 15 games.
Streak watchYordan Alvarez carries a 10-game hitting streak into tonight.

Bullpen rest: HOU 20.0 IP vs ATH 14.7 IP over the last 3 days.

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

HOU Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

Game Control (live)

I. Recent Team Form

HOU (Last 10)4-6