AnalysisGame Detail

NYM vs WSH — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

NYM—

PREGAME

12:35 PM ET

WSH—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

54% NYM

46% WSH

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

NYM

Slight

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

55.1% NYM

44.9% WSH

Updated 11h ago

FanDuel

55.5% NYM

44.5% WSH

Updated 11h ago

BetMGM

Not available

Updates until 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 12:35 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Mets has the deeper, fresher bullpen

Mets has been the hotter lineup

Mets prevents runs at a higher clip

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanNYM

Win Prob54%

Edge StrengthSLIGHT

S. Matchup Signals

NYMSTARTERMets are 1-1 in Jonah Tong's last 2 startsTeam result over his last 2 stored starts.
WSHINJURYNationals are without Connelly EarlyOut · Left Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 24
WSHINJURYNationals are without Matt WaldronOut · club IL list as of Sep 24

B. Why NYX Leans NYM

Starting Pitcher Edge

50%50%

Bullpen Edge

64%36%

Offense Edge

62%38%

Run Prevention

60%40%

Context & Health

57%43%

F. Players to Watch

NYMLost 2 straight

Nothing notable yet.

WSHWon 3 straight

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen strainThe Washington Nationals bullpen has logged 34 innings over the past week.11 different relievers used — heavy recent workload for the late innings.
Power surgeCarson Benge has homered 4 times in his last 15 games.

Bullpen rest: NYM 14.3 IP vs WSH 12.0 IP over the last 3 days.

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Slight

Bullpen Fatigue

NYM Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

Game Control (live)

I. Recent Team Form

NYM (Last 10)4-6