PE3 output is a CANDIDATE with no authority. Engine 2.2 is the only official probability. PE3 numbers must never be presented as, substituted for, or blended with official output.
Yandy Díaz had the top offensive game of the slate — 7 total bases
Yordan Alvarez leads the MLB in home runs — 35
| # | Team | Streak | L10 | RD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | W7 | 8-2 | +7 ↑ |
| 2 |
Candidate leans LAD 62.7%
Engine 3.0.0 · shadow output · not used by any official product surface.
Official leans LAD 66.7%
app_config.prediction_engine = "v22" · this is the probability the product recognises.
Selection rule: of the games PE3 covered on this slate, this is the one whose candidate probability sits furthest from 50%. Cutoff alignment with Engine 2.2 is not provable — Engine 2.2 rows carry no information-cutoff column, so the two sides are aligned by game only.
| First pitch | Matchup | OFFICIAL · ENGINE 2.2 Home win | CANDIDATE · SHADOW · NO AUTHORITY Home win | Difference | PE3 coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:45 PM ET | CHCatWSH | 47.4% | 51.3% | +3.9 pp | COVERED |
| 7:07 PM ET | BOSatTOR | 51.5% | 47.7% | −3.8 pp | COVERED |
| 7:45 PM ET | PHIatSTL | 47.8% | 55.2% | +7.3 pp | COVERED |
| 9:45 PM ET | HOUatSF | 47.4% | 50.7% | +3.3 pp | COVERED |
| 9:40 PM ET | MILatSD | 51.5% | 48.1% | −3.4 pp | COVERED |
| 7:05 PM ET | SEAatNYY | 51.5% | 59.1% | +7.6 pp | COVERED |
| 7:40 PM ET | BALatMIN | 51.5% | 53.9% | +2.4 pp | COVERED |
| 6:40 PM ET | PITatMIA | 51.5% | 54.2% | +2.7 pp | COVERED |
| 10:10 PM ET | KCatLAD | 66.7% | 62.7% | −4.0 pp | COVERED |
| 9:38 PM ET | TEXatLAA | 51.5% | 51.7% | +0.2 pp | COVERED |
| 6:40 PM ET | CLEatDET | 59.8% | 56.9% | −2.9 pp | COVERED |
| 7:40 PM ET | CINatCWS | 51.5% | 60.7% | +9.2 pp | COVERED |
| 7:15 PM ET | NYMatATL | 51.5% | 57.9% | +6.4 pp | COVERED |
| 9:40 PM ET | TBatATH | 47.4% | 48.8% | +1.4 pp | COVERED |
| 9:40 PM ET | COLatARI | 66.7% | 59.2% | −7.5 pp | COVERED |
134 aligned, graded games recorded in the prospective ledger.
| Metric | OFFICIAL · ENGINE 2.2 | CANDIDATE · SHADOW · NO AUTHORITY |
|---|---|---|
| Log lossLower is a better fit to observed outcomes. Shown per engine; no ranking is asserted. | 0.7636 | 0.7420 |
| Brier scoreMean squared error of the probability. Lower is a closer fit. | 0.2848 | 0.2742 |
| AccuracyShare of graded games whose favoured side won. | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Calibration error (ECE)Gap between stated probability and observed frequency. | — | — |
As of 2026-08-11T11:09:13.752612+00:00 · built 2026-08-11T11:09:13.752633+00:00 · ledger coverage 40.0%
| DET |
| W2 |
| 7-3 |
| +48 ↑ |
| 3 | BOS | L3 | 7-3 | +33 ↑ |
| 4 | ATL | L1 | 7-3 | +20 ↑ |
| 5 | CHC | W1 | 7-3 | +18 ↑ |
| # | Team | Streak | L10 | RD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATH | L1 | 2-8 | -39 ↓ |
| 2 | SF | L3 | 2-8 | -22 ↓ |
| 3 | LAD | W1 | 2-8 | -21 ↓ |
| 4 | SEA | L4 | 3-7 | -26 ↓ |
| 5 | LAA | L3 | 3-7 | -23 ↓ |