AnalysisGame Detail

LAD vs SF — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

LAD—

PREGAME

3:05 PM ET

SF—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

67% LAD

33% SF

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

LAD

Strong

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:05 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Dodgers has been the hotter lineup

Dodgers has the deeper, fresher bullpen

Dodgers prevents runs at a higher clip

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanLAD

Win Prob67%

Edge StrengthSTRONG

S. Matchup Signals

PITCH MIXBlade Tidwell has leaned more heavily on his Four-Seam lately — 40% over his last three starts, up from 28% beforehand92 pitches recently, 153 before · Measured through his start on Sep 21
PITCH MIXBlade Tidwell has gone to his Sweeper less often lately — 21.3% over his last three starts, down from 33.1% beforehand49 pitches recently, 181 before · Measured through his start on Sep 21
SFINJURYGiants are without Rafael DeversOut · club IL list as of Sep 24

B. Why NYX Leans LAD

Starting Pitcher EdgeNot enough data

Bullpen Edge

62%38%

Offense Edge

75%25%

Run Prevention

61%39%

Context & Health

55%45%

Edge Count4 / 0

C. Pitching Matchup

LADRHPPROJECTED

B. Stewart

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 23.1%BB 0.0%

Whiff 20.7%CSW 25.5%

Recent Form

SFRHPPROJECTED

B. Tidwell

Recent form · Last 15 days

D. Bullpen Status

LAD BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

9 relievers used

13.7 IP used

SF BullpenFresh

Usage (Last 3 Days)

7 relievers used

6.7 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

LAD+7 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

LAD7-3 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

SFLost 3 straight

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: LAD 13.7 IP vs SF 6.7 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: LAD 7-3, SF 3-7 over the last 10 games.

Rafael Devers leads the Giants with 37 HR

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Strong

Bullpen Fatigue

LAD Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

Game Control (live)

I. Recent Team Form

LAD (Last 10)7-3