Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
CLE—
PREGAME
7:10 PM ET
KC—
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
51%CLE
49%KC
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
CLE
Toss-up
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
54.1%CLE
45.9%KC
Updated 9h ago
FanDuel
52.9%CLE
47.1%KC
Updated 9h ago
BetMGM
53.7%CLE
46.3%KC
Updated 9h ago
Updates until 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 7:10 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Guardians prevents runs at a higher clip
Guardians has the deeper, fresher bullpen
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanCLE
Win Prob51%
Edge StrengthTOSS-UP
S. Matchup Signals ⓘ
KCSTARTERRoyals are 3-2 in Michael Wacha's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
CLESTARTERGuardians are 3-2 in Tanner Bibee's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
WHIFFHitters have missed 15.4% of their swings against the Changeup from Michael Wacha over his last three starts, down 10.8 percentage points from his prior starts39 swings recently, 371 before · Measured through his start on Sep 20
B. Why NYX Leans CLE ⓘ
Starting Pitcher Edge
48%52%
Bullpen Edge
57%43%
Offense Edge
50%50%
Run Prevention
75%25%
Context & Health
47%53%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
CLEWon 2 straight
Nothing notable yet.
KCLost 2 straight
Nothing notable yet.
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
Power surgeTravis Bazzana has gone deep 5 times over his last 15 games.
WorkhorseMichael Wacha has worked at least six innings in 5 straight starts.33 innings across the run.
Heating upThe Kansas City Royals offense has jumped to a .834 OPS this week.Up from .738 over the prior month — a real change of form.
Bullpen rest: CLE 15.7 IP vs KC 17.3 IP over the last 3 days.
H. Model Read ⓘ
Model Confidence
Toss-up
Bullpen Fatigue
CLE Heavy
Leverage (proxy)
Game Control (live)
I. Recent Team Form ⓘ
CLE (Last 10)8-2
Edge Count2/2
C. Pitching Matchup ⓘ
CLERHP
T. Bibee
Recent form · Last 15 days
K 17.6%BB 3.9%
Whiff 22.0%CSW 23.6%
Recent Form
Opposing lineup vs him.321 (31 PA)
KCRHP
M. Wacha
Recent form · Last 15 days
K 14.0%BB 10.0%
Whiff 15.3%CSW 21.1%
Recent Form
Opposing lineup vs him.156 (33 PA)
Guardians hitters vs M. Wacha
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
S. Kwan700.000
J. Ramírez600.000
C. DeLauter300.000
P. Halpin310.333
A. Martínez310.500
N. Lowe300.000
P. Bailey320.667
B. Rocchio510.200
Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.
Royals hitters vs T. Bibee
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
C. Jensen510.200
B. Witt Jr.521.400
J. Caglianone520.500
M. Garcia300.000
V. Pasquantino520.667
S. Perez520.400
K. Isbel300.000
Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.