AnalysisGame Detail

NYM vs WSH — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

NYM—

PREGAME

3:05 PM ET

WSH—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

50% NYM

50% WSH

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

WSH

Toss-up

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:05 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Nationals brings the stronger starting pitcher

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanWSH

Win Prob50%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

S. Matchup Signals

STARTERSean Manaea has been piling up strikeouts29.2% strikeout rate over 15 days · as of Sep 23
NYMSTARTERMets are 2-3 in Sean Manaea's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
WSHINJURYNationals are without Connelly EarlyOut · Left Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 24

B. Why NYX Leans WSH

Starting Pitcher Edge

35%65%

Bullpen Edge

64%36%

Offense Edge

62%38%

Run Prevention

60%40%

Context & Health

57%43%

Edge Count4 / 1

C. Pitching Matchup

NYMLHPPROBABLE

S. Manaea

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 29.2%BB 3.1%

Whiff 22.8%CSW 29.1%

Recent Form

WSHLHPPROBABLE

D. Bullpen Status

NYM BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

10 relievers used

14.3 IP used

WSH BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

7 relievers used

12.0 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

NYM+6 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

NYMLost 2 straight

Nothing notable yet.

WSHWon 3 straight

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: NYM 14.3 IP vs WSH 12.0 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: NYM 4-6, WSH 7-3 over the last 10 games.

CJ Abrams leads the Nationals with 33 HR

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

NYM Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

Game Control (live)

I. Recent Team Form

NYM (Last 10)4-6