AnalysisGame Detail

PIT vs DET — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

PIT—

PREGAME

1:10 PM ET

DET—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

48% PIT

52% DET

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

DET

Toss-up

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 1:10 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Tigers holds the situational and health edge

Tigers has been the hotter lineup

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanDET

Win Prob52%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

S. Matchup Signals

STARTERKirby Yates has been piling up strikeouts33.3% strikeout rate over 15 days · as of Sep 26
DETINJURYTigers are without Burch SmithOut · Right Shoulder · club IL list as of Sep 24
PITINJURYPirates are without Endy RodríguezOut · Left Hip · club IL list as of Sep 24

B. Why NYX Leans DET

Starting Pitcher Edge

56%44%

Bullpen Edge

54%46%

Offense Edge

48%52%

Run Prevention

52%48%

Context & Health

36%64%

Edge Count3 / 2

C. Pitching Matchup

PITRHP

K. Yates

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 33.3%BB 0.0%

Whiff 12.5%CSW 14.3%

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.167 (18 PA)

DETRHP

J. Verlander

IPPitches

HBBK

ERERA

D. Bullpen Status

PIT BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

10 relievers used

15.3 IP used

DET BullpenFresh

Usage (Last 3 Days)

6 relievers used

7.3 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

PIT+4 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

PIT6-4 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

DET4-6 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Power surgeBrandon Lowe has homered 5 times in his last 15 games.

Bullpen rest: PIT 15.3 IP vs DET 7.3 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: PIT 6-4, DET 4-6 over the last 10 games.

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

PIT Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

Game Control (live)

I. Recent Team Form

PIT (Last 10)6-4