Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
ARI—
PREGAME
8:40 PM ET
SD—
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
48%ARI
52%SD
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
SD
Toss-up
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
46.9%ARI
53.1%SD
Updated 9h ago
FanDuel
Not available
BetMGM
Not available
Updates until 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 8:40 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Padres holds the situational and health edge
Padres has the deeper, fresher bullpen
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanSD
Win Prob52%
Edge StrengthTOSS-UP
S. Matchup Signals ⓘ
ARIINJURYD-backs are without Tyler LocklearOut · Right Thumb · club IL list as of Sep 24
SDINJURYPadres are without Luis RengifoOut · Right Knee · club IL list as of Sep 24
ARIWIN STREAKArizona Diamondbacks have won 6 straight — the longest active streak in MLBLeads the next-longest active streak by 3. · Through Sep 25
B. Why NYX Leans SD ⓘ
Starting Pitcher EdgeNot enough data
Bullpen Edge
48%52%
Offense Edge
56%44%
Run Prevention
52%48%
Context & Health
45%55%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
ARIWon 6 straight
Nothing notable yet.
SD7-3 in last 10
Nothing notable yet.
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
Streak watchNolan Arenado carries an 11-game hitting streak into tonight.
Hottest batsThe Arizona Diamondbacks bring today's hottest offense (.925 OPS this week).48 runs over their last seven days; they face the San Diego Padres tonight.
Power surgeFernando Tatis Jr. has 5 home runs in his last 15 games.
Bullpen rest: ARI 8.7 IP vs SD 14.0 IP over the last 3 days.