AnalysisGame Detail

TB vs PHI — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

TB—

PREGAME

3:05 PM ET

PHI—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

43% TB

57% PHI

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

PHI

Moderate

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:05 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Phillies brings the stronger starting pitcher

Phillies holds the situational and health edge

Phillies has been the hotter lineup

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanPHI

Win Prob57%

Edge StrengthMODERATE

S. Matchup Signals

PITCH MIXNick Martinez has gone to his Changeup less often lately — 16.7% over his last three starts, down from 26.9% beforehand39 pitches recently, 602 before · Measured through his start on Sep 22
PHIINJURYPhillies are without Caleb KilianOut · Left Oblique · club IL list as of Sep 24
PHIINJURYPhillies are without Johan RojasOut · Right Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 24

B. Why NYX Leans PHI

Starting Pitcher Edge

41%59%

Bullpen Edge

55%45%

Offense Edge

32%68%

Run Prevention

56%44%

Context & Health

40%60%

Edge Count2 / 3

C. Pitching Matchup

TBRHPPROBABLE

N. Martinez

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 16.0%BB 8.0%

Whiff 31.8%CSW 34.4%

Recent Form

PHIRHPPROBABLE

D. Bullpen Status

TB BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

8 relievers used

11.0 IP used

PHI BullpenModerate

Usage (Last 3 Days)

7 relievers used

8.0 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

TB+7 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

TB6-4 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

PHILost 3 straight

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: TB 11.0 IP vs PHI 8.0 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: TB 6-4, PHI 4-6 over the last 10 games.

Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 45 HR

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Moderate

Bullpen Fatigue

TB Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

Game Control (live)

I. Recent Team Form

TB (Last 10)6-4