AnalysisGame Detail

HOU vs ATH — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

HOU0

TOP 1st

ATH0

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

60% HOU

40% ATH

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

HOU

Moderate

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

61.9% HOU

38.1% ATH

Updated 18h ago

FanDuel

61.5% HOU

38.5% ATH

Updated 18h ago

BetMGM

61.9% HOU

38.1% ATH

Updated 18h ago

Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 9:40 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Astros brings the stronger starting pitcher

Astros prevents runs at a higher clip

Astros holds the situational and health edge

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanHOU

Win Prob60%

Edge StrengthMODERATE

S. Matchup Signals

WHIFFHitters have missed 22.2% of their swings against the Changeup from Peter Lambert over his last three starts, down 10.4 percentage points from his prior starts36 swings recently, 288 before · Measured through his start on Sep 18
ATHINJURYAthletics are without Nick KurtzOut · Right Thumb · club IL list as of Sep 24
ATHINJURYAthletics are without Mark Leiter Jr.Out · Right Hip · club IL list as of Sep 24

B. Why NYX Leans HOU

Starting Pitcher Edge

80%20%

Bullpen Edge

48%52%

Offense Edge

55%45%

Run Prevention

72%28%

Context & Health

58%42%

F. Players to Watch

HOU3-7 in last 10

I. Paredes3BHOT BAT1-4 | HR, BB, RBI today

C. Walker1BHOT BAT2-4 | HR, K, RBI today

ATHWon 2 straight

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Moderate

Bullpen Fatigue

HOU Fresh

Leverage (proxy)

Medium

Game Control (live)

ATH 50%

I. Recent Team Form

HOU (Last 10)3-7

C. Pitching Matchup

HOURHP

P. Lambert

2.2 IP62 Pitches

6 H2 BB6 K

4 ER3.87 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.375 (8 PA)

ATHRHP

M. Barnett

6.0 IP87 Pitches

4 H2 BB8 K

4 ER7.02 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.125 (10 PA)

Astros hitters vs M. Barnett

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

J. Peña100.000

I. Paredes200.000

J. Altuve210.500

C. Walker200.000

C. Smith200.000

C. Vázquez100.000

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

Athletics hitters vs P. Lambert

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

H. Bolte2201.000

S. Langeliers300.000

J. McNeil200.000

Z. Gelof1101.000

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: HOU 7.0 IP vs ATH 7.0 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: HOU 3-7, ATH 3-7 over the last 10 games.

Lawrence Butler leads the Athletics with 17 HR

Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with 41 HR

Jeff McNeil leads the Athletics with 123 hits

Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with 174 hits

Yordan Alvarez ranks #1 in MLB in AVG (.316)