Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
LAA0
TOP 1st
SEA0
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
33%LAA
67%SEA
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
SEA
Strong
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
36.4%LAA
63.6%SEA
Updated 18h ago
FanDuel
36.4%LAA
63.6%SEA
Updated 18h ago
BetMGM
36.1%LAA
63.9%SEA
Updated 18h ago
Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 9:40 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Mariners brings the stronger starting pitcher
Mariners holds the situational and health edge
Mariners has been the hotter lineup
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanSEA
Win Prob67%
Edge StrengthSTRONG
S. Matchup Signals ⓘ
PITCH MIXGrayson Rodriguez has gone to his Four-Seam less often lately — 40.2% over his last three starts, down from 53.7% beforehand107 pitches recently, 753 before · Measured through his start on Sep 18
SEAINJURYMariners are without Will WilsonOut · Left Thumb · club IL list as of Sep 24
SEAINJURYMariners are without Luke RaleyOut · Left Forearm · club IL list as of Sep 24
B. Why NYX Leans SEA ⓘ
Starting Pitcher Edge
36%64%
Bullpen Edge
44%56%
Offense Edge
39%61%
Run Prevention
42%58%
Context & Health
34%66%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
LAALost 3 straight
G. RodriguezSPPITCH COUNT104 pitches today
J. LoweRFHOT BAT2-3 | 2B, HBP, 3 R today
SEA5-5 in last 10
H. Model Read ⓘ
Model Confidence
Strong
Bullpen Fatigue
SEA Fresh
Leverage (proxy)
Medium
Game Control (live)
SEA 50%
I. Recent Team Form ⓘ
LAA (Last 10)4-6
Edge Count0/5
C. Pitching Matchup ⓘ
LAARHP
G. Rodriguez
5.0 IP104 Pitches
5 H5 BB2 K
4 ER6.02 ERA
Recent Form
SEARHP
B. Woo
5.1 IP106 Pitches
7 H3 BB8 K
4 ER4.01 ERA
Recent Form
Opposing lineup vs him.071 (17 PA)
Angels hitters vs B. Woo
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
Z. Neto600.000
M. Trout300.000
V. Grissom300.000
J. Lowe510.250
Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.
Mariners hitters vs G. Rodriguez
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
No hitter in this lineup has prior history vs this starter.
D. Bullpen Status ⓘ
LAA BullpenFresh
Usage (Last 3 Days)
5 relievers used
2.7 IP used
SEA BullpenFresh
Usage (Last 3 Days)
4 relievers used
5.0 IP used
E. Injury / Availability ⓘ
LAA+8 more on IL
S. Natera Jr. P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
SEA+9 more on IL
E. Hancock P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
J. Rodríguez
CF
HOT BAT
2-4 | HR, K, 2 RBI today
B. WooSPPITCH COUNT106 pitches today
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
Bullpen rest: LAA 2.7 IP vs SEA 5.0 IP over the last 3 days.