AnalysisGame Detail

CIN vs ATL — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

CIN7

END 8th

ATL6

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

29% CIN

71% ATL

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

ATL

Strong

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

32.6% CIN

67.4% ATL

Updated 21h ago

FanDuel

33.9% CIN

66.1% ATL

Updated 21h ago

BetMGM

33.6% CIN

66.4% ATL

Updated 21h ago

Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 7:15 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Braves brings the stronger starting pitcher

Braves prevents runs at a higher clip

Braves has been the hotter lineup

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanATL

Win Prob71%

Edge StrengthSTRONG

S. Matchup Signals

ATLSTARTERBraves are 5-0 in Tyler Mahle's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
CINSTARTERReds are 1-4 in Brady Singer's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
PITCH MIXTyler Mahle has leaned more heavily on his Splitter lately — 38.8% over his last three starts, up from 28% beforehand112 pitches recently, 567 before · Measured through his start on Sep 18

B. Why NYX Leans ATL

Starting Pitcher Edge

21%79%

Bullpen Edge

43%57%

Offense Edge

32%68%

Run Prevention

30%70%

Context & Health

47%53%

F. Players to Watch

CIN4-6 in last 10

C. JorgeCFHOT BAT1-4 | HR, K, RBI today

E. De La CruzSSHOT BAT1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBI today

ATL6-4 in last 10

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Strong

Bullpen Fatigue

ATL Moderate

Leverage (proxy)

High

Game Control (live)

CIN 67%

I. Recent Team Form

CIN (Last 10)4-6

C. Pitching Matchup

CINRHP

B. Singer

3.0 IP63 Pitches

7 H2 BB1 K

5 ER5.85 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.250 (16 PA)

ATLRHP

T. Mahle

5.0 IP91 Pitches

6 H2 BB4 K

5 ER3.99 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.545 (16 PA)

Reds hitters vs T. Mahle

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

E. De La Cruz311.500

S. Stewart322.667

T. Stephenson200.000

E. Suárez3311.000

M. McLain300.000

K. Hayes200.000

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

Braves hitters vs B. Singer

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

R. Acuña Jr.311.500

M. Olson300.000

M. Harris II300.000

M. Dubón200.000

O. Albies310.333

M. Yastrzemski210.500

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: CIN 5.3 IP vs ATL 8.3 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: CIN 4-6, ATL 6-4 over the last 10 games.

Matt Olson leads the Braves with 41 HR

Sal Stewart leads the Reds with 32 HR

Michael Harris II leads the Braves with 167 hits

Sal Stewart leads the Reds with 161 hits

Drake Baldwin ranks #20 in MLB in AVG (.282)