AnalysisGame Detail

TB vs NYY — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

TB4

TOP 8th

NYY4

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

48% TB

52% NYY

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

NYY

Toss-up

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

42.8% TB

57.2% NYY

Updated 20h ago

FanDuel

42.9% TB

57.1% NYY

Updated 20h ago

BetMGM

43.7% TB

56.3% NYY

Updated 20h ago

Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 7:05 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Yankees has been the hotter lineup

Yankees brings the stronger starting pitcher

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanNYY

Win Prob52%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

S. Matchup Signals

STARTERCam Schlittler has been missing bats31.2% whiff rate over 15 days · as of Sep 24
PITCH MIXIan Seymour has leaned more heavily on his Sinker lately — 25.7% over his last three starts, up from 12.7% beforehand62 pitches recently, 119 before · Measured through his start on Sep 18
NYYSTARTERYankees are 4-1 in Cam Schlittler's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.

B. Why NYX Leans NYY

Starting Pitcher Edge

46%54%

Bullpen Edge

55%45%

Offense Edge

32%68%

Run Prevention

51%49%

Context & Health

49%51%

F. Players to Watch

TBLost 2 straight

Y. DíazDHHOT BAT2-4 | BB, 2 R today

J. Caminero3BHOT BAT2-5 | 2 RBI today

NYYWon 2 straight

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

NYY Moderate

Leverage (proxy)

High

Game Control (live)

NYY 52%

I. Recent Team Form

TB (Last 10)7-3

C. Pitching Matchup

TBLHP

I. Seymour

5.0 IP58 Pitches

1 H0 BB3 K

0 ER4.22 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.176 (17 PA)

NYYRHP

C. Schlittler

3.0 IP70 Pitches

3 H2 BB5 K

1 ER1.95 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.276 (30 PA)

Rays hitters vs C. Schlittler

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

Y. Díaz710.167

N. Fortes300.000

J. Caminero620.333

C. Simpson630.500

J. DeLuca310.333

T. Walls510.200

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

Yankees hitters vs I. Seymour

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

P. Goldschmidt400.000

C. Bellinger310.333

B. Rice421.500

A. Wells200.000

J. Caballero400.000

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: TB 8.7 IP vs NYY 6.7 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: TB 7-3, NYY 6-4 over the last 10 games.

Ben Rice leads the Yankees with 41 HR

Junior Caminero leads the Rays with 41 HR

Ben Rice leads the Yankees with 148 hits

Yandy Díaz leads the Rays with 175 hits

Liam Hicks ranks #15 in MLB in AVG (.284)