AnalysisGame Detail

CHC vs BOS — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

CHC3

FINAL

BOS4

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

No locked pregame forecast for this game

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

Not locked

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 1:05 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

No notes for this matchup.

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

No locked pregame forecast for this game.

B. Why NYX Leans

Starting Pitcher EdgeNot enough data

Bullpen Edge

44%56%

Offense Edge

64%36%

Run Prevention

44%56%

Context & Health

49%51%

Edge Count1 / 3

C. Pitching Matchup

CHCRHP

C. Holmes

4.1 IP78 Pitches

5 H3 BB3 K

2 ER3.29 ERA

Recent Form

BOSLHP

A. Gamboa

D. Bullpen Status

CHC BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

9 relievers used

12.0 IP used

BOS BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

9 relievers used

19.0 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

CHC+9 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

CHCLost 2 straight

M. Shaw3BHOT BAT2-4 | 2B, CS today

M. Busch1BHOT BAT2-3 | BB, R today

BOSWon 2 straight

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Bullpen Fatigue

BOS Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

CHC (Last 10)4-6

3.8

Runs For

3.7

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: CHC 12.0 IP vs BOS 19.0 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: CHC 4-6, BOS 5-5 over the last 10 games.

Willson Contreras leads the Red Sox with 27 HR

Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the Cubs with 45 HR

Ceddanne Rafaela leads the Red Sox with 152 hits

Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the Cubs with 174 hits

Ceddanne Rafaela ranks #18 in MLB in AVG (.282)