Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
CIN—
PREGAME
3:07 PM ET
TOR—
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
33%CIN
67%TOR
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
TOR
Strong
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
Not available
FanDuel
38.5%CIN
61.5%TOR
Updated 1h ago
BetMGM
Not available
Updates until 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:07 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Blue Jays brings the stronger starting pitcher
Blue Jays prevents runs at a higher clip
Blue Jays has the deeper, fresher bullpen
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanTOR
Win Prob67%
Edge StrengthSTRONG
S. Matchup Signals ⓘ
VELOCITYThe Curveball from Max Scherzer has averaged 73.1 mph over his last three starts, 2 mph below his earlier 2026 starts39 measured recently, 159 before · Measured through his start on Sep 23
VELOCITYThe Slider from Max Scherzer has averaged 83.8 mph over his last three starts, 2 mph below his earlier 2026 starts37 measured recently, 204 before · Measured through his start on Sep 23
CININJURYReds are without Spencer SteerOut · Right Wrist · club IL list as of Sep 26
B. Why NYX Leans TOR ⓘ
Starting Pitcher Edge
27%73%
Bullpen Edge
43%57%
Offense Edge
44%56%
Run Prevention
33%67%
Context & Health
41%59%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
CIN5-5 in last 10
Nothing notable yet.
TOR3-7 in last 10
Nothing notable yet.
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
Bullpen rest: CIN 11.3 IP vs TOR 12.0 IP over the last 3 days.