AnalysisGame Detail

HOU vs ATH — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

HOU—

PREGAME

3:05 PM ET

ATH—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

53% HOU

47% ATH

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

HOU

Slight

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:05 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Astros prevents runs at a higher clip

Astros holds the situational and health edge

Astros has been the hotter lineup

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanHOU

Win Prob53%

Edge StrengthSLIGHT

S. Matchup Signals

STARTERCristian Javier has been giving up free passes11.3% walk rate over 15 days · as of Sep 23
HOUSTARTERAstros are 2-1 in Cristian Javier's last 3 startsTeam result over his last 3 stored starts.
ATHSTARTERAthletics are 1-2 in Brady Basso's last 3 startsTeam result over his last 3 stored starts.

B. Why NYX Leans HOU

Starting Pitcher EdgeNot enough data

Bullpen Edge

52%48%

Offense Edge

54%46%

Run Prevention

72%28%

Context & Health

59%41%

Edge Count4 / 0

C. Pitching Matchup

HOURHPPROJECTED

C. Javier

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 17.0%BB 11.3%

Whiff 20.4%CSW 23.4%

Recent Form

ATHLHPPROJECTED

D. Bullpen Status

HOU BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

8 relievers used

20.0 IP used

ATH BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

8 relievers used

14.7 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

HOU+8 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

HOU4-6 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

ATH3-7 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: HOU 20.0 IP vs ATH 14.7 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: HOU 4-6, ATH 3-7 over the last 10 games.

Lawrence Butler leads the Athletics with 17 HR

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Slight

Bullpen Fatigue

HOU Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

HOU (Last 10)4-6

4.3

Runs For