AnalysisGame Detail

HOU vs ATH — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

HOU5

FINAL

ATH6

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

52% HOU

48% ATH

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

HOU

Toss-up

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

63.5% HOU

36.5% ATH

Updated 23h ago

FanDuel

63.0% HOU

37.0% ATH

Updated 23h ago

BetMGM

63.9% HOU

36.1% ATH

Updated 23h ago

Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 9:40 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Astros prevents runs at a higher clip

Astros brings the stronger starting pitcher

Astros holds the situational and health edge

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanHOU

Win Prob52%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

B. Why NYX Leans HOU

Starting Pitcher Edge

56%44%

Bullpen Edge

48%52%

Offense Edge

55%45%

Run Prevention

72%28%

Context & Health

58%42%

F. Players to Watch

HOU4-6 in last 10

C. Walker1BHOT BAT1-3 | HR, BB, RBI today

C. SmithRFHOT BAT1-3 | HR, BB, 2 K today

ATH3-7 in last 10

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

HOU Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

HOU (Last 10)4-6

4.3

Runs For

C. Pitching Matchup

HOURHP

H. Brown

5.1 IP100 Pitches

2 H4 BB4 K

1 ER3.19 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.171 (41 PA)

ATHLHP

J. Lopez

6.0 IP94 Pitches

2 H2 BB4 K

1 ER5.47 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.122 (56 PA)

Astros hitters vs J. Lopez

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

J. Peña600.000

Y. Alvarez1011.143

I. Paredes600.000

J. Altuve1010.111

Y. Diaz720.286

C. Walker821.286

C. Smith700.000

L. Spence200.000

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

Athletics hitters vs H. Brown

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

H. Bolte600.000

L. Butler610.250

S. Langeliers300.000

J. McNeil620.333

Z. Gelof600.000

D. Walton511.333

T. White520.400

J. Heim400.000

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: HOU 20.0 IP vs ATH 14.7 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: HOU 4-6, ATH 3-7 over the last 10 games.

Lawrence Butler leads the Athletics with 17 HR

Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with 41 HR

Jeff McNeil leads the Athletics with 126 hits

Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with 176 hits

Yordan Alvarez ranks #1 in MLB in AVG (.315)