AnalysisGame Detail

CHC vs BOS — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

CHC—

PREGAME

3:05 PM ET

BOS—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

48% CHC

52% BOS

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

BOS

Toss-up

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:05 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Red Sox has the deeper, fresher bullpen

Red Sox prevents runs at a higher clip

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanBOS

Win Prob52%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

S. Matchup Signals

PITCH MIXShota Imanaga has leaned more heavily on his Splitter lately — 45.4% over his last three starts, up from 33.3% beforehand132 pitches recently, 834 before · Measured through his start on Sep 22
PITCH MIXPayton Tolle has leaned more heavily on his Sinker lately — 34.2% over his last three starts, up from 22.7% beforehand95 pitches recently, 454 before · Measured through his start on Sep 22
CHCINJURYCubs are without Ben BrownOut · Neck · club IL list as of Sep 26

B. Why NYX Leans BOS

Starting Pitcher EdgeNot enough data

Bullpen Edge

44%56%

Offense Edge

68%32%

Run Prevention

46%54%

Context & Health

49%51%

Edge Count1 / 3

C. Pitching Matchup

CHCLHPPROJECTED

S. Imanaga

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 19.1%BB 0.0%

Whiff 37.0%CSW 31.9%

Recent Form

BOSLHPPROJECTED

D. Bullpen Status

CHC BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

9 relievers used

12.0 IP used

BOS BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

9 relievers used

19.0 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

CHC+9 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

CHCLost 2 straight

Nothing notable yet.

BOSWon 2 straight

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: CHC 12.0 IP vs BOS 19.0 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: CHC 4-6, BOS 5-5 over the last 10 games.

Willson Contreras leads the Red Sox with 27 HR

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

BOS Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

CHC (Last 10)4-6

3.8

Runs For