Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
MIA1
FINAL
CHC2
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
41%MIA
59%CHC
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
CHC
Moderate
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
35.4%MIA
64.6%CHC
Updated 2d ago
FanDuel
35.9%MIA
64.1%CHC
Updated 2d ago
BetMGM
35.3%MIA
64.7%CHC
Updated 2d ago
Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 2:20 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Cubs holds the situational and health edge
Cubs prevents runs at a higher clip
Cubs has been the hotter lineup
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanCHC
Win Prob59%
Edge StrengthMODERATE
B. Why NYX Leans CHC ⓘ
Starting Pitcher Edge
45%55%
Bullpen Edge
53%47%
Offense Edge
40%60%
Run Prevention
39%61%
Context & Health
40%60%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
MIA5-5 in last 10
Nothing notable yet.
CHCLost 2 straight
S. SuzukiRFHOT BAT2-3 | HR, BB, K today
M. BoydSPPITCH COUNT90 pitches today
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
H. Model Read ⓘ
Model Confidence
Moderate
Bullpen Fatigue
CHC Heavy
Leverage (proxy)
I. Recent Team Form ⓘ
MIA (Last 10)5-5
3.7
Runs For
Edge Count1/4
C. Pitching Matchup ⓘ
MIARHP
T. Phillips
4.0 IP73 Pitches
3 H4 BB2 K
0 ER3.34 ERA
Recent Form
Opposing lineup vs him.267 (16 PA)
CHCLHP
M. Boyd
7.0 IP90 Pitches
5 H2 BB3 K
1 ER3.91 ERA
Recent Form
Marlins hitters vs M. Boyd
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
No hitter in this lineup has prior history vs this starter.
Cubs hitters vs T. Phillips
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
P. Crow-Armstrong311.500
S. Suzuki310.333
M. Busch200.000
M. Conforto210.500
N. Hoerner200.000
P. Ramírez200.000
C. Kelly210.500
Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.
D. Bullpen Status ⓘ
MIA BullpenFresh
Usage (Last 3 Days)
7 relievers used
7.7 IP used
CHC BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
9 relievers used
12.0 IP used
E. Injury / Availability ⓘ
MIA+9 more on IL
M. Meyer P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
CHC+9 more on IL
B. Brown P
Injured 60-Day
60-Day IL
Bullpen rest: MIA 7.7 IP vs CHC 12.0 IP over the last 3 days.