Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
PIT7
FINAL
DET8
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
48%PIT
52%DET
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
DET
Toss-up
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
48.0%PIT
52.0%DET
Updated 26h ago
FanDuel
48.0%PIT
52.0%DET
Updated 26h ago
BetMGM
47.8%PIT
52.2%DET
Updated 26h ago
Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 6:40 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Tigers holds the situational and health edge
Tigers has been the hotter lineup
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanDET
Win Prob52%
Edge StrengthTOSS-UP
B. Why NYX Leans DET ⓘ
Starting Pitcher Edge
54%46%
Bullpen Edge
54%46%
Offense Edge
48%52%
Run Prevention
51%49%
Context & Health
45%55%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
PITLost 2 straight
R. Flores Jr.CHOT BAT1-4 | HR, K, 3 RBI today
R. O'HearnDHHOT BAT2-4 | K, 2 RBI, 2 R today
DETWon 2 straight
H. Model Read ⓘ
Model Confidence
Toss-up
Bullpen Fatigue
PIT Heavy
Leverage (proxy)
I. Recent Team Form ⓘ
PIT (Last 10)6-4
4.4
Runs For
Edge Count3/2
C. Pitching Matchup ⓘ
PITRHP
B. Chandler
2.2 IP77 Pitches
4 H4 BB2 K
6 ER4.62 ERA
Recent Form
DETRHP
J. Jobe
5.1 IP86 Pitches
3 H2 BB8 K
2 ER3.91 ERA
Recent Form
Opposing lineup vs him.300 (12 PA)
Pirates hitters vs J. Jobe
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
B. Lowe300.000
B. Reynolds310.333
O. Cruz210.500
N. Gonzales210.500
J. Triolo200.000
Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.
Tigers hitters vs B. Chandler
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
No hitter in this lineup has prior history vs this starter.
D. Bullpen Status ⓘ
PIT BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
10 relievers used
15.3 IP used
DET BullpenFresh
Usage (Last 3 Days)
6 relievers used
7.3 IP used
E. Injury / Availability ⓘ
PIT+4 more on IL
B. Ashcraft P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
DET+13 more on IL
J. Flaherty P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
S. Torkelson
1B
HOT BAT
3-4 | HR, 3B, 2B today
J. JobeSPDEALING8 K · 2 ER today
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
Bullpen rest: PIT 15.3 IP vs DET 7.3 IP over the last 3 days.