AnalysisGame Detail

CLE vs KC — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

CLE—

PREGAME

3:10 PM ET

KC—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

53% CLE

47% KC

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

CLE

Slight

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:10 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Guardians prevents runs at a higher clip

Guardians has the deeper, fresher bullpen

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanCLE

Win Prob53%

Edge StrengthSLIGHT

S. Matchup Signals

WHIFFHitters have missed 12.9% of their swings against the Four-Seam from Parker Messick over his last three starts, down 10.9 percentage points from his prior starts70 swings recently, 542 before · Measured through his start on Sep 22
KCINJURYRoyals are without Cole RagansOut · Left Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 26
KCINJURYRoyals are without Stephen KolekOut · club IL list as of Sep 26

B. Why NYX Leans CLE

Starting Pitcher EdgeNot enough data

Bullpen Edge

57%43%

Offense Edge

50%50%

Run Prevention

75%25%

Context & Health

47%53%

Edge Count2 / 1

C. Pitching Matchup

CLELHPPROJECTED

P. Messick

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 39.2%BB 8.1%

Whiff 27.4%CSW 30.2%

Recent Form

KCLHPPROBABLE

D. Bullpen Status

CLE BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

8 relievers used

15.7 IP used

KC BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

9 relievers used

17.3 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

CLE+1 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

CLEWon 2 straight

Nothing notable yet.

KCLost 2 straight

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: CLE 15.7 IP vs KC 17.3 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: CLE 8-2, KC 2-8 over the last 10 games.

Carter Jensen leads the Royals with 27 HR

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Slight

Bullpen Fatigue

CLE Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

CLE (Last 10)8-2

5.0

Runs For