Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
ATL0
FINAL
MIA3
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
50%ATL
50%MIA
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
ATL
Toss-up
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
51.7%ATL
48.3%MIA
Updated 26h ago
FanDuel
52.0%ATL
48.0%MIA
Updated 26h ago
BetMGM
51.7%ATL
48.3%MIA
Updated 26h ago
Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 7:10 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Braves prevents runs at a higher clip
Braves holds the situational and health edge
Braves has been the hotter lineup
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanATL
Win Prob50%
Edge StrengthTOSS-UP
B. Why NYX Leans ATL ⓘ
Starting Pitcher Edge
49%51%
Bullpen Edge
52%48%
Offense Edge
56%44%
Run Prevention
64%36%
Context & Health
55%45%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
ATL6-4 in last 10
R. Acuña Jr.RFBVP EDGE.333 vs Pérez (6 PA)
D. BaldwinDHBVP EDGE.400 vs Pérez (6 PA)
MIA5-5 in last 10
H. Model Read ⓘ
Model Confidence
Toss-up
Bullpen Fatigue
ATL Heavy
Leverage (proxy)
I. Recent Team Form ⓘ
ATL (Last 10)6-4
4.3
Runs For
Edge Count4/1
C. Pitching Matchup ⓘ
ATLLHP
R. Kerr
3.0 IP32 Pitches
2 H1 BB0 K
0 ER1.47 ERA
Recent Form
MIARHP
E. Pérez
9.0 IP105 Pitches
1 H1 BB8 K
0 ER3.91 ERA
Recent Form
Opposing lineup vs him.351 (40 PA)
Braves hitters vs E. Pérez
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
D. Baldwin620.400
R. Acuña Jr.620.333
M. Olson510.200
M. Harris II530.750
M. Dubón520.400
O. Albies500.000
M. Yastrzemski210.500
A. Riley420.500
S. Murphy200.000
Marlins hitters vs R. Kerr
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
No hitter in this lineup has prior history vs this starter.
D. Bullpen Status ⓘ
ATL BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
9 relievers used
13.3 IP used
MIA BullpenFresh
Usage (Last 3 Days)
7 relievers used
7.7 IP used
E. Injury / Availability ⓘ
ATL+8 more on IL
S. Strider P
Injured 60-Day
60-Day IL
MIA+9 more on IL
M. Meyer P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
G. Conine
RF
HOT BAT
2-3 | HR, BB, RBI today
J. MackCHOT BAT1-2 | HR, BB, RBI today
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
Bullpen rest: ATL 13.3 IP vs MIA 7.7 IP over the last 3 days.