AnalysisGame Detail

STL vs MIL — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

STL4

FINAL

MIL8

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

41% STL

59% MIL

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

MIL

Moderate

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

37.0% STL

63.0% MIL

Updated 26h ago

FanDuel

37.3% STL

62.7% MIL

Updated 26h ago

BetMGM

37.4% STL

62.6% MIL

Updated 25h ago

Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 7:40 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Brewers prevents runs at a higher clip

Brewers brings the stronger starting pitcher

Brewers holds the situational and health edge

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanMIL

Win Prob59%

Edge StrengthMODERATE

B. Why NYX Leans MIL

Starting Pitcher Edge

39%61%

Bullpen Edge

49%51%

Offense Edge

41%59%

Run Prevention

40%60%

Context & Health

44%56%

F. Players to Watch

STLLost 2 straight

I. HerreraDHHOT BAT1-4 | HR, 3 K, RBI today

J. WalkerRFHOT BAT1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBI today

MILWon 3 straight

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Moderate

Bullpen Fatigue

STL Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

STL (Last 10)3-7

3.1

Runs For

C. Pitching Matchup

STLRHP

M. McGreevy

4.2 IP92 Pitches

9 H2 BB2 K

4 ER3.95 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.314 (38 PA)

MILLHP

R. Gasser

6.0 IP87 Pitches

1 H1 BB9 K

1 ER3.87 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.111 (19 PA)

Cardinals hitters vs R. Gasser

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

J. Wetherholt400.000

I. Herrera300.000

J. Walker320.667

A. Burleson300.000

M. Winn300.000

N. Church300.000

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

Brewers hitters vs M. McGreevy

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

G. Mitchell520.400

B. Turang300.000

W. Contreras610.167

J. Bauers521.500

C. Yelich630.500

C. Pratt210.500

L. Lara310.333

J. Chourio610.200

D. Hamilton200.000

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: STL 12.7 IP vs MIL 13.3 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: STL 3-7, MIL 8-2 over the last 10 games.

Jake Bauers leads the Brewers with 26 HR

Jordan Walker leads the Cardinals with 29 HR

Brice Turang leads the Brewers with 154 hits

Alec Burleson leads the Cardinals with 168 hits

Alec Burleson ranks #25 in MLB in AVG (.280)