AnalysisGame Detail

TEX vs MIN — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

TEX—

PREGAME

3:10 PM ET

MIN—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

43% TEX

57% MIN

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

MIN

Moderate

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:10 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Twins holds the situational and health edge

Twins has the deeper, fresher bullpen

Twins prevents runs at a higher clip

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanMIN

Win Prob57%

Edge StrengthMODERATE

S. Matchup Signals

WHIFFHitters have missed 8% of their swings against the Four-Seam from MacKenzie Gore over his last three starts, down 12.7 percentage points from his prior starts50 swings recently, 658 before · Measured through his start on Sep 22
TEXSTARTERRangers are 3-2 in MacKenzie Gore's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
TEXINJURYRangers are without Cole WinnOut · club IL list as of Sep 26

B. Why NYX Leans MIN

Starting Pitcher EdgeNot enough data

Bullpen Edge

45%55%

Offense Edge

54%46%

Run Prevention

48%52%

Context & Health

40%60%

Edge Count1 / 3

C. Pitching Matchup

TEXLHPPROJECTED

M. Gore

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 7.0%BB 12.3%

Whiff 9.3%CSW 18.9%

Recent Form

MINRHPPROBABLE

D. Bullpen Status

TEX BullpenHeavy

Usage (Last 3 Days)

9 relievers used

12.7 IP used

MIN BullpenFresh

Usage (Last 3 Days)

5 relievers used

6.7 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

TEX+8 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

TEX5-5 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

MINWon 3 straight

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: TEX 12.7 IP vs MIN 6.7 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: TEX 5-5, MIN 6-4 over the last 10 games.

Kody Clemens leads the Twins with 27 HR

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Moderate

Bullpen Fatigue

TEX Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

TEX (Last 10)5-5

3.9

Runs For