AnalysisGame Detail

MIL vs PHI — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

MIL5

FINAL

PHI1

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

48% MIL

52% PHI

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

PHI

Toss-up

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

44.8% MIL

55.2% PHI

Updated 2d ago

FanDuel

44.9% MIL

55.1% PHI

Updated 2d ago

BetMGM

44.7% MIL

55.3% PHI

Updated 2d ago

Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 6:05 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Phillies holds the situational and health edge

Phillies brings the stronger starting pitcher

Phillies has been the hotter lineup

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanPHI

Win Prob52%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

B. Why NYX Leans PHI

Starting Pitcher Edge

47%53%

Bullpen Edge

53%47%

Offense Edge

48%52%

Run Prevention

50%50%

Context & Health

45%55%

F. Players to Watch

MILWon 3 straight

J. ChourioDHHOT BAT1-1 | HR, BB, RBI today

J. Bauers1BHOT BAT2-5 | 2B, 2 K, RBI today

PHILost 3 straight

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

MIL Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

MIL (Last 10)8-2

4.5

Runs For

C. Pitching Matchup

MILLHP

S. Drohan

2.2 IP47 Pitches

3 H2 BB2 K

1 ER4.24 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.381 (21 PA)

PHIRHP

A. Painter

6.0 IP93 Pitches

5 H3 BB8 K

1 ER5.40 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.429 (14 PA)

Brewers hitters vs A. Painter

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

G. Mitchell320.667

B. Turang310.333

J. Chourio310.333

J. Bauers211.500

J. Ortiz310.333

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

Phillies hitters vs S. Drohan

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

K. Schwarber320.667

T. Turner310.333

B. Harper300.000

E. Sosa211.500

A. Bohm300.000

B. Stott210.500

J. Realmuto210.500

B. Marsh320.667

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: MIL 13.3 IP vs PHI 8.0 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: MIL 8-2, PHI 4-6 over the last 10 games.

Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 45 HR

Jake Bauers leads the Brewers with 26 HR

Bryce Harper leads the Phillies with 153 hits

Brice Turang leads the Brewers with 154 hits

Luis Arraez ranks #3 in MLB in AVG (.310)