AnalysisGame Detail

TB vs PHI — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

TB2

FINAL

PHI0

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

48% TB

52% PHI

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

PHI

Toss-up

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

38.4% TB

61.6% PHI

Updated 26h ago

FanDuel

38.5% TB

61.5% PHI

Updated 26h ago

BetMGM

38.1% TB

61.9% PHI

Updated 26h ago

Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 6:40 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Phillies holds the situational and health edge

Phillies has been the hotter lineup

Phillies brings the stronger starting pitcher

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanPHI

Win Prob52%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

B. Why NYX Leans PHI

Starting Pitcher Edge

47%53%

Bullpen Edge

56%44%

Offense Edge

35%65%

Run Prevention

58%42%

Context & Health

42%58%

F. Players to Watch

TB6-4 in last 10

N. FortesCHOT BAT1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBI today

F. PeraltaSPPITCH COUNT93 pitches today

PHILost 3 straight

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

TB Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

TB (Last 10)6-4

3.7

Runs For

C. Pitching Matchup

TBRHP

F. Peralta

5.1 IP93 Pitches

4 H3 BB4 K

0 ER4.42 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.643 (15 PA)

PHILHP

C. Sánchez

7.0 IP100 Pitches

5 H1 BB10 K

2 ER2.91 ERA

Recent Form

Rays hitters vs C. Sánchez

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

J. Mateo300.000

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

Phillies hitters vs F. Peralta

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

K. Schwarber211.500

T. Turner310.333

B. Harper2211.000

A. Bohm210.500

B. Stott210.500

J. Crawford2101.000

J. Realmuto2201.000

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: TB 11.0 IP vs PHI 8.0 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: TB 6-4, PHI 4-6 over the last 10 games.

Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with 45 HR

Junior Caminero leads the Rays with 41 HR

Bryce Harper leads the Phillies with 153 hits

Yandy Díaz leads the Rays with 177 hits

Chandler Simpson ranks #4 in MLB in AVG (.306)