Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
STL1
FINAL
PIT2
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
41%STL
59%PIT
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
PIT
Moderate
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
40.3%STL
59.7%PIT
Updated 2d ago
FanDuel
40.7%STL
59.3%PIT
Updated 2d ago
BetMGM
40.1%STL
59.9%PIT
Updated 2d ago
Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 12:35 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Pirates prevents runs at a higher clip
Pirates has been the hotter lineup
Pirates brings the stronger starting pitcher
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanPIT
Win Prob59%
Edge StrengthMODERATE
B. Why NYX Leans PIT ⓘ
Starting Pitcher Edge
46%54%
Bullpen Edge
47%53%
Offense Edge
32%68%
Run Prevention
35%65%
Context & Health
53%47%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
STLLost 2 straight
A. Burleson1BHOT BAT1-4 | HR, K, RBI today
J. Wetherholt2BHOT BAT2-4 | 2B today
PITLost 2 straight
H. Model Read ⓘ
Model Confidence
Moderate
Bullpen Fatigue
STL Heavy
Leverage (proxy)
I. Recent Team Form ⓘ
STL (Last 10)3-7
3.1
Runs For
Edge Count1/4
C. Pitching Matchup ⓘ
STLRHP
K. Leahy
2.0 IP37 Pitches
3 H0 BB3 K
1 ER3.66 ERA
Recent Form
Opposing lineup vs him.346 (27 PA)
PITRHP
P. Skenes
6.1 IP96 Pitches
3 H2 BB8 K
1 ER3.82 ERA
Recent Form
Opposing lineup vs him.313 (16 PA)
Cardinals hitters vs P. Skenes
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
J. Wetherholt321.667
I. Herrera300.000
A. Burleson320.667
J. Walker311.333
N. Church200.000
M. Winn200.000
Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.
Pirates hitters vs K. Leahy
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
O. Cruz521.400
K. Griffin210.500
B. Lowe521.500
R. O'Hearn311.333
J. Triolo100.000
S. Horwitz410.250
B. Reynolds520.400
H. Davis200.000
Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.
D. Bullpen Status ⓘ
STL BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
8 relievers used
12.7 IP used
PIT BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
10 relievers used
15.3 IP used
E. Injury / Availability ⓘ
STL+4 more on IL
H. Dobbins P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
PIT+4 more on IL
B. Ashcraft P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
P. Skenes
SP
DEALING
8 K · 1 ER today
O. CruzCFHOT BAT2-4 | 2B, R, SB today
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
Bullpen rest: STL 12.7 IP vs PIT 15.3 IP over the last 3 days.