AnalysisGame Detail

ARI vs SD — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

ARI11

FINAL

SD4

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

48% ARI

52% SD

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

Toss-up

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

46.2% ARI

53.8% SD

Updated 23h ago

FanDuel

46.7% ARI

53.3% SD

Updated 23h ago

BetMGM

47.8% ARI

52.2% SD

Updated 23h ago

Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 9:40 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Padres holds the situational and health edge

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanSD

Win Prob52%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

B. Why NYX Leans SD

Starting Pitcher Edge

59%41%

Bullpen Edge

50%50%

Offense Edge

50%50%

Run Prevention

53%47%

Context & Health

44%56%

F. Players to Watch

ARIWon 6 straight

N. Arenado3BHOT BAT1-3 | HR, BB, HBP today

J. LawlarCFHOT BAT1-4 | HR, K, RBI today

SD7-3 in last 10

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

SD Heavy

Leverage (proxy)

I. Recent Team Form

ARI (Last 10)7-3

6.3

Runs For

C. Pitching Matchup

ARIRHP

B. Pfaadt

7.2 IP106 Pitches

9 H2 BB7 K

4 ER3.77 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.250 (52 PA)

SDRHP

C. Mize

4.0 IP71 Pitches

7 H2 BB1 K

7 ER4.32 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.314 (41 PA)

D-backs hitters vs C. Mize

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

I. Vargas200.000

K. Marte600.000

J. McCann400.000

G. Perdomo930.375

C. Carroll820.400

N. Arenado2111.000

T. Tawa421.500

J. Fernandez2211.000

J. Lawlar411.250

Padres hitters vs B. Pfaadt

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

J. Bowen100.000

D. Harris410.333

M. Machado1110.091

T. France1021.250

S. Song510.200

A. Hays100.000

L. Campusano630.500

J. Cronenworth930.375

S. Taylor510.200

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: ARI 8.7 IP vs SD 14.0 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: ARI 7-3, SD 7-3 over the last 10 games.

Manny Machado leads the Padres with 29 HR

Nolan Arenado leads the D-backs with 30 HR

Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with 181 hits

Gabriel Moreno leads the D-backs with 146 hits

Gabriel Moreno ranks #2 in MLB in AVG (.311)