Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
ARI—
PREGAME
3:10 PM ET
SD—
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
48%ARI
52%SD
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
SD
Toss-up
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:10 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Padres holds the situational and health edge
Padres has the deeper, fresher bullpen
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanSD
Win Prob52%
Edge StrengthTOSS-UP
S. Matchup Signals ⓘ
STARTERMichael Soroka has been piling up strikeouts32.2% strikeout rate over 15 days · as of Sep 23
WHIFFHitters have missed 45% of their swings against the Slurve from Michael Soroka over his last three starts, up 12.9 percentage points from his prior starts40 swings recently, 218 before · Measured through his start on Sep 22
SDSTARTERPadres are 3-2 in Michael King's last 5 startsTeam result over his last 5 stored starts.
B. Why NYX Leans SD ⓘ
Starting Pitcher EdgeNot enough data
Bullpen Edge
48%52%
Offense Edge
56%44%
Run Prevention
52%48%
Context & Health
45%55%
Edge Count2/2
C. Pitching Matchup ⓘ
ARIRHPPROBABLE
M. Soroka
Recent form · Last 15 days
K 32.2%BB 5.1%
Whiff 27.4%CSW 28.6%
Recent Form
SDRHPPROJECTED
D. Bullpen Status ⓘ
ARI BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
7 relievers used
8.7 IP used
SD BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
8 relievers used
14.0 IP used
E. Injury / Availability ⓘ
ARI+5 more on IL
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
ARIWon 6 straight
Nothing notable yet.
SD7-3 in last 10
Nothing notable yet.
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
Bullpen rest: ARI 8.7 IP vs SD 14.0 IP over the last 3 days.