Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
NYM1
FINAL
TEX3
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
48%NYM
52%TEX
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
TEX
Toss-up
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
45.1%NYM
54.9%TEX
Updated 2d ago
FanDuel
45.3%NYM
54.7%TEX
Updated 2d ago
BetMGM
45.3%NYM
54.7%TEX
Updated 2d ago
Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 2:35 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Rangers brings the stronger starting pitcher
Rangers holds the situational and health edge
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanTEX
Win Prob52%
Edge StrengthTOSS-UP
B. Why NYX Leans TEX ⓘ
Starting Pitcher Edge
41%59%
Bullpen Edge
57%43%
Offense Edge
66%34%
Run Prevention
52%48%
Context & Health
47%53%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
NYM5-5 in last 10
Nothing notable yet.
TEX5-5 in last 10
C. SeagerSSHOT BAT1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBI today
W. LangfordLFHOT BAT2-3 | K, CS today
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
H. Model Read ⓘ
Model Confidence
Toss-up
Bullpen Fatigue
NYM Heavy
Leverage (proxy)
I. Recent Team Form ⓘ
NYM (Last 10)5-5
4.6
Runs For
Edge Count3/2
C. Pitching Matchup ⓘ
NYMLHP
Z. Thornton
5.0 IP83 Pitches
4 H1 BB4 K
2 ER3.42 ERA
Recent Form
TEXRHP
K. Rocker
5.0 IP74 Pitches
3 H2 BB4 K
1 ER4.38 ERA
Recent Form
Mets hitters vs K. Rocker
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
No hitter in this lineup has prior history vs this starter.
Rangers hitters vs Z. Thornton
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
No hitter in this lineup has prior history vs this starter.
D. Bullpen Status ⓘ
NYM BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
10 relievers used
14.3 IP used
TEX BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
9 relievers used
12.7 IP used
E. Injury / Availability ⓘ
NYM+6 more on IL
D. Duarte P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
TEX+8 more on IL
J. Pederson DH
Injured 10-Day
10-Day IL
Bullpen rest: NYM 14.3 IP vs TEX 12.7 IP over the last 3 days.