Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.
CIN5
TOP 4th
TOR2
B
S
O
BASES
NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME
40%CIN
60%TOR
LEVERAGE
—
MODEL LEAN PREGAME
TOR
Moderate
MARKET COMPARISON
Informational only
Market implied probability · margin removed
DraftKings
41.6%CIN
58.4%TOR
Updated 2h ago
FanDuel
41.8%CIN
58.2%TOR
Updated 2h ago
BetMGM
40.9%CIN
59.1%TOR
Updated 2h ago
Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch
Implied probability
Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.
A. Current At-Bat Flow ⓘ
CURRENT MATCHUP
No at-bat in progress — first pitch 7:07 PM ET.
AT-BAT SEQUENCE
Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.
NEXT 3 UP
Shown once the game is underway.
MATCHUP NOTES
Blue Jays brings the stronger starting pitcher
Blue Jays prevents runs at a higher clip
Blue Jays has the deeper, fresher bullpen
MODEL EDGE · PREGAME
NYX LeanTOR
Win Prob60%
Edge StrengthMODERATE
S. Matchup Signals ⓘ
WHIFFHitters have missed 20% of their swings against the Splitter from José Soriano over his last three starts, down 13.3 percentage points from his prior starts30 swings recently, 231 before · Measured through his start on Sep 19
PITCH MIXJosé Soriano has leaned more heavily on his Sinker lately — 39.8% over his last three starts, up from 28.6% beforehand103 pitches recently, 747 before · Measured through his start on Sep 19
CININJURYReds are without Spencer SteerOut · Right Wrist · club IL list as of Sep 24
B. Why NYX Leans TOR ⓘ
Starting Pitcher Edge
35%65%
Bullpen Edge
44%56%
Offense Edge
42%58%
Run Prevention
38%62%
Context & Health
48%52%
F. Players to Watch ⓘ
CIN4-6 in last 10
E. Suárez3BHOT BAT2-2 | HR, RBI, R today
C. JorgeCFHOT BAT2-3 | R today
TORLost 3 straight
H. Model Read ⓘ
Model Confidence
Moderate
Bullpen Fatigue
TOR Heavy
Leverage (proxy)
Low
Game Control (live)
CIN 84%
I. Recent Team Form ⓘ
CIN (Last 10)4-6
Edge Count0/5
C. Pitching Matchup ⓘ
CINLHP
N. Lodolo
3.0 IP66 Pitches
6 H2 BB1 K
2 ER5.06 ERA
Recent Form
TORRHP
J. Soriano
3.0 IP48 Pitches
8 H0 BB2 K
5 ER3.91 ERA
Recent Form
Opposing lineup vs him.000 (9 PA)
Reds hitters vs J. Soriano
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
E. De La Cruz300.000
S. Stewart300.000
E. Suárez300.000
Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.
Blue Jays hitters vs N. Lodolo
PLAYERPAHHRAVG
No hitter in this lineup has prior history vs this starter.
D. Bullpen Status ⓘ
CIN BullpenFresh
Usage (Last 3 Days)
6 relievers used
5.3 IP used
TOR BullpenHeavy
Usage (Last 3 Days)
8 relievers used
12.0 IP used
E. Injury / Availability ⓘ
CIN+6 more on IL
C. Burns P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
TOR+13 more on IL
D. Cease P
Injured 15-Day
15-Day IL
C. McAdoo
2B
HOT BAT
2-2 | 2B, R today
G. Game Facts That Matter ⓘ
Bullpen rest: CIN 5.3 IP vs TOR 12.0 IP over the last 3 days.