AnalysisGame Detail

BAL vs NYY — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

BAL10

FINAL

NYY2

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

60% BAL

40% NYY

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

BAL

Moderate

MARKET COMPARISON

Informational only

Market implied probability · margin removed

DraftKings

49.5% BAL

50.5% NYY

Updated 1h ago

FanDuel

50.0% BAL

50.0% NYY

Updated 1h ago

BetMGM

50.0% BAL

50.0% NYY

Updated 1h ago

Pregame market · locked 5 minutes before scheduled first pitch

Implied probability

Market context is shown alongside the NYX read for comparison only — it is not an input to the NYX analysis above and does not change it.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators. NYX AETHER does not accept wagers.

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 7:05 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Orioles brings the stronger starting pitcher

Orioles holds the situational and health edge

Orioles has the deeper, fresher bullpen

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanBAL

Win Prob60%

Edge StrengthMODERATE

B. Why NYX Leans BAL

Starting Pitcher Edge

99%1%

Bullpen Edge

53%47%

Offense Edge

46%54%

Run Prevention

47%53%

Context & Health

56%44%

F. Players to Watch

BALWon 4 straight

D. BeaversRFHOT BAT1-4 | HR, 2 BB, 2 K today

P. Alonso1BHOT BAT3-5 | 2 HR, K, 3 RBI today

NYY5-5 in last 10

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Moderate

Bullpen Fatigue

NYY Moderate

Leverage (proxy)

Game Control (live)

I. Recent Team Form

BAL (Last 10)7-3

C. Pitching Matchup

BALLHP

T. Rogers

4.0 IP55 Pitches

5 H0 BB4 K

1 ER4.03 ERA

Recent Form

Opposing lineup vs him.571 (16 PA)

NYYRHP

B. Beck

5.0 IP97 Pitches

6 H3 BB8 K

7 ER9.95 ERA

Recent Form

Orioles hitters vs B. Beck

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

No hitter in this lineup has prior history vs this starter.

Yankees hitters vs T. Rogers

PLAYERPAHHRAVG

P. Goldschmidt642.667

B. Rice620.500

A. Rosario420.500

Only hitters with prior matchup history are shown.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: BAL 5.3 IP vs NYY 6.7 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: BAL 7-3, NYY 5-5 over the last 10 games.

Ben Rice leads the Yankees with 41 HR

Pete Alonso leads the Orioles with 41 HR

Ben Rice leads the Yankees with 148 hits

Pete Alonso leads the Orioles with 157 hits

Luis García Jr. ranks #17 in MLB in HR (30)