AnalysisGame Detail

BAL vs NYY — Game Analysis

Win-prediction breakdown — how the NYX model sees this game, pregame to final.

BAL—

PREGAME

3:20 PM ET

NYY—

BASES

NYX WIN PROBABILITY PREGAME

48% BAL

52% NYY

LEVERAGE

—

MODEL LEAN PREGAME

NYY

Toss-up

A. Current At-Bat Flow

CURRENT MATCHUP

No at-bat in progress — first pitch 3:20 PM ET.

AT-BAT SEQUENCE

Pitch-by-pitch appears once the game starts.

NEXT 3 UP

Shown once the game is underway.

MATCHUP NOTES

Yankees holds the situational and health edge

Yankees prevents runs at a higher clip

Yankees has been the hotter lineup

MODEL EDGE · PREGAME

NYX LeanNYY

Win Prob52%

Edge StrengthTOSS-UP

S. Matchup Signals

WHIFFHitters have missed 12.9% of their swings against the Knuckle Curve from Shane Baz over his last three starts, down 14.8 percentage points from his prior starts31 swings recently, 426 before · Measured through his start on Sep 21
VELOCITYThe Sinker from Elmer Rodríguez has averaged 96.5 mph over his last three starts, 1.7 mph above his earlier 2026 starts128 measured recently, 101 before · Measured through his start on Aug 31
BALINJURYOrioles are without Zach EflinOut · Right Elbow · club IL list as of Sep 24

B. Why NYX Leans NYY

Starting Pitcher Edge

68%32%

Bullpen Edge

53%47%

Offense Edge

46%54%

Run Prevention

47%53%

Context & Health

43%57%

Edge Count2 / 3

C. Pitching Matchup

BALRHPPROBABLE

S. Baz

Recent form · Last 15 days

K 21.1%BB 5.8%

Whiff 12.2%CSW 25.6%

Recent Form

NYYRHPPROBABLE

D. Bullpen Status

BAL BullpenFresh

Usage (Last 3 Days)

5 relievers used

5.3 IP used

NYY BullpenModerate

Usage (Last 3 Days)

7 relievers used

6.7 IP used

E. Injury / Availability

BAL+11 more on IL

F. Players to Watch

BALWon 4 straight

Nothing notable yet.

NYY5-5 in last 10

Nothing notable yet.

G. Game Facts That Matter

Bullpen rest: BAL 5.3 IP vs NYY 6.7 IP over the last 3 days.

Form: BAL 7-3, NYY 5-5 over the last 10 games.

Ben Rice leads the Yankees with 41 HR

H. Model Read

Model Confidence

Toss-up

Bullpen Fatigue

NYY Moderate

Leverage (proxy)

Game Control (live)

I. Recent Team Form

BAL (Last 10)7-3