Model History

NYX prediction track record · 1122 games graded · last 90 days

30D90DSeasonAll

PREDICTION ACCURACY

55.2%

▲ 5.2% vs prior 90d

BRIER SCORE

0.244

▼ 0.003 lower is better

HIGH-CONF HIT RATE

88.9%

8 of 9 picks >70%

UNITS RETURNED

—

Not tracked — NYX is win-probability only

ACCURACY OVER TIME

Overall

Jun 28Jul 19Aug 5Aug 21Sep 6Sep 23

CALIBRATION

v2.2-logistic+isotonic-n7167

50–60%act 53% · exp 53%

60–70%act 63% · exp 62%

70–80%act 80% · exp 70%

80–90%n=1 · low sample

90%+act 75% · exp 94%

Actual hit-rateExpected

RECENT PREDICTIONS

Graded daily · most recent first

DATEMATCHUPNYX PICKCONFEDGERESULT

Sep 23Angels @ AthleticsAngels53%—✗ MISS

Sep 23Reds @ BravesBraves71%—✓ HIT

Sep 23Blue Jays @ OriolesOrioles52%—✓ HIT

Sep 23Blue Jays @ OriolesOrioles59%—✓ HIT

Sep 23Guardians @ Red SoxRed Sox52%—✓ HIT

Sep 23Marlins @ CubsCubs59%—✗ MISS

Sep 23D-backs @ RockiesD-backs60%—✓ HIT

Sep 23Nationals @ TigersTigers70%—✗ MISS

Edge not shown — NYX reports win probability only (no market line, odds, or units).

Market history

Informational only

History begins Aug 12 — games before this date have no stored market data.

Date	Matchup	NYX	Market Consensus	DraftKings	FanDuel	Kalshi	NYX vs Consensus	Result
Sep 23	Angels @ Athletics	47.0%	44.6%	44.7%	44.9%	N/A	+2.4 pp	MISS
Sep 23	Reds @ Braves	71.0%	70.2%	70.3%	69.0%	N/A	+0.8 pp	HIT
Sep 23	Blue Jays @ Orioles	52.0%	54.0%	53.5%	53.7%	N/A	-2.0 pp	HIT
Sep 23	Blue Jays @ Orioles	59.0%	52.4%	52.7%	52.4%	N/A	+6.6 pp	HIT
Sep 23	Guardians @ Red Sox	52.0%	55.8%	56.2%	55.1%	N/A	-3.8 pp	HIT
Sep 23	Marlins @ Cubs	59.0%	62.6%	63.1%	61.8%	N/A	-3.6 pp	MISS
Sep 23	D-backs @ Rockies	40.0%	40.4%	40.3%	41.1%	N/A	-0.4 pp	HIT
Sep 23	Nationals @ Tigers	70.0%	60.1%	60.0%	60.0%	N/A	+9.9 pp	MISS
Sep 23	White Sox @ Royals	50.0%	47.9%	47.9%	48.5%	N/A	+2.1 pp	MISS
Sep 23	Padres @ Dodgers	67.0%	66.5%	66.3%	66.6%	N/A	+0.5 pp	MISS
Sep 23	Rays @ Yankees	53.0%	55.8%	55.9%	56.7%	N/A	-2.8 pp	HIT
Sep 23	Brewers @ Phillies	52.0%	47.3%	47.4%	47.1%	N/A	+4.7 pp	MISS
Sep 23	Cardinals @ Pirates	60.0%	56.2%	56.2%	55.3%	N/A	+3.8 pp	MISS
Sep 23	Twins @ Giants	49.0%	41.0%	40.9%	41.8%	N/A	+8.0 pp	HIT
Sep 23	Astros @ Mariners	57.0%	53.8%	53.3%	54.3%	N/A	+3.2 pp	HIT
Sep 23	Mets @ Rangers	47.0%	50.1%	50.1%	50.0%	N/A	-3.1 pp	HIT
Sep 22	Angels @ Athletics	52.0%	50.0%	50.1%	50.0%	N/A	+2.0 pp	HIT
Sep 22	Reds @ Braves	60.0%	67.2%	67.4%	66.9%	N/A	-7.2 pp	MISS
Sep 22	Guardians @ Red Sox	52.0%	53.0%	53.1%	53.3%	N/A	-1.0 pp	MISS
Sep 22	Marlins @ Cubs	60.0%	65.0%	65.7%	64.1%	N/A	-5.0 pp	MISS
Sep 22	D-backs @ Rockies	40.0%	38.0%	38.4%	37.8%	N/A	+2.0 pp	HIT
Sep 22	Nationals @ Tigers	59.0%	57.7%	57.3%	57.9%	N/A	+1.3 pp	MISS
Sep 22	White Sox @ Royals	57.0%	47.8%	47.8%	48.0%	N/A	+9.2 pp	MISS
Sep 22	Padres @ Dodgers	59.0%	54.3%	54.2%	54.3%	N/A	+4.7 pp	HIT
Sep 22	Rays @ Yankees	52.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	HIT
Sep 22	Rays @ Yankees	57.0%	54.2%	54.0%	54.3%	N/A	+2.8 pp	MISS
Sep 22	Brewers @ Phillies	53.0%	56.3%	56.3%	56.3%	N/A	-3.3 pp	HIT
Sep 22	Cardinals @ Pirates	60.0%	59.8%	60.1%	60.7%	N/A	+0.2 pp	HIT
Sep 22	Twins @ Giants	51.0%	44.2%	43.8%	44.5%	N/A	+6.8 pp	MISS
Sep 22	Astros @ Mariners	60.0%	54.8%	54.7%	56.3%	N/A	+5.2 pp	MISS
Sep 22	Mets @ Rangers	52.0%	54.5%	54.2%	54.7%	N/A	-2.5 pp	MISS
Sep 21	Blue Jays @ Orioles	57.0%	50.7%	50.4%	50.9%	N/A	+6.3 pp	HIT
Sep 21	Nationals @ Tigers	67.0%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	HIT
Sep 21	Twins @ Giants	52.0%	48.3%	48.3%	46.7%	N/A	+3.7 pp	HIT
Sep 20	Yankees @ D-backs	52.0%	53.3%	53.3%	53.7%	N/A	-1.3 pp	HIT
Sep 20	Brewers @ Orioles	47.0%	34.8%	34.7%	34.8%	N/A	+12.2 pp	HIT
Sep 20	Tigers @ White Sox	40.0%	51.9%	51.7%	52.0%	N/A	-11.9 pp	MISS
Sep 20	Cubs @ Reds	43.0%	40.8%	40.8%	41.4%	N/A	+2.2 pp	HIT
Sep 20	Athletics @ Guardians	60.0%	68.1%	68.1%	68.1%	N/A	-8.1 pp	HIT
Sep 20	Mariners @ Rockies	40.0%	40.7%	40.7%	40.3%	N/A	-0.7 pp	HIT

Kalshi: Not shown — data-source review pending

Market columns show the last stored quote before first pitch (margin removed, home side). Games without a stored pregame quote show N/A.

Results are graded on game outcomes only. Agreement or disagreement with the market neither validates nor grades NYX.

The NYX column for completed games is reconstructed from the graded pregame record (whole-percent precision), so historical differences carry up to ±0.5 pp rounding.

Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators.

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