Market History
How often each source’s pregame market favorite won.
Coverage is not continuous — no prices Aug 21–25 — and those games are in no source’s record.
Kalshi
Market favorite record · All tracked games
6–185.7%Favorite won
Recent games
- Last 25
- —Not enough graded games yet
- Last 10
- —Not enough graded games yet
- Last 5
- 4 of 5 · 80%
- Current streak
- Won 4
- Best streak
- Won 4
- Coverage
- 7 graded of 7 completed games with a pregame quote
- Tracked since
- Sep 29
- Coverage gap
- no prices Sep 30–Oct 1
Polymarket
Market favorite record · All tracked games
6–185.7%Favorite won
Recent games
- Last 25
- —Not enough graded games yet
- Last 10
- —Not enough graded games yet
- Last 5
- 4 of 5 · 80%
- Current streak
- Won 4
- Best streak
- Won 4
- Coverage
- 7 graded of 7 completed games with a pregame quote
- Tracked since
- Sep 29
- Coverage gap
- no prices Sep 30–Oct 1
FanDuel
Market favorite record · All tracked games
323–21859.7%Favorite won
Recent games
- Last 25
- 20 of 25 · 80%
- Last 10
- 8 of 10 · 80%
- Last 5
- 4 of 5 · 80%
- Current streak
- Won 2
- Best streak
- Won 9
- Coverage
- 541 graded of 561 completed games with a pregame quote
- Tracked since
- Aug 12
- Pick’em excluded
- 20
DraftKings
Market favorite record · All tracked games
332–22060.1%Favorite won
Recent games
- Last 25
- 20 of 25 · 80%
- Last 10
- 8 of 10 · 80%
- Last 5
- 4 of 5 · 80%
- Current streak
- Won 2
- Best streak
- Won 9
- Coverage
- 552 graded of 557 completed games with a pregame quote
- Tracked since
- Aug 12
- Pick’em excluded
- 5
BetMGM
Market favorite record · All tracked games
313–20460.5%Favorite won
Recent games
- Last 25
- 20 of 25 · 80%
- Last 10
- 7 of 10 · 70%
- Last 5
- 4 of 5 · 80%
- Current streak
- Won 2
- Best streak
- Won 9
- Coverage
- 517 graded of 553 completed games with a pregame quote
- Tracked since
- Aug 12
- Coverage gap
- no prices Sep 21
- Pick’em excluded
- 36
How this is measured
- Each source’s pregame quote is frozen 5 minutes before first pitch.
- The margin is removed from both sides; the side with the higher probability is that source’s market favorite.
- A game counts once it is final. Pick’em games (both sides even) have no favorite and are excluded.
- Each source is recorded on its own games and is never combined with another.
- A source’s record begins with the first game its pregame quote was stored for. A game with no stored quote from a source is not in that source’s record.
- Data via The Odds API. Informational market data only — not advice.