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Implied probabilities are derived from each source's listed prices with the built-in margin removed, so the two sides of a game sum to 100%. Differences are shown in percentage points versus the pre-computed multi-source consensus. Informational comparison only — this is not advice.
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Final
Line score not available yet.
What changed after first pitch.
Result
D-backs won · Dodgers 2, D-backs 4
Pregame edge
D-backs · held up
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
51% to Win
The D-backs enter tonight with the stronger starting-pitching matchup and a more rested bullpen. The Dodgers have a deep bullpen of their own, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Dodgers also brings
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks
NYX had the Arizona Diamondbacks (52%), and they won 4–2 — their defense delivered. A notable result — more than 44% of comparable v2.2 finals.
Biggest factors
Runs 4–2 · Hits 6–6 · Errors 0–1Home Advantage
D-backs has been the stronger side at home this season (59%). Dodgers can lean on a deeper bullpen, but D-backs looks better positioned, led by the bats and pitching depth.
Key Drivers
What Could Flip It
Home starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Each factor shows the model’s pre-game lean (bar), what the box score said happened (chip: delivered / backfired / overcame), and — when a v2.2 snapshot exists — its win-probability weight (pp toward the pick). Home Field & Health have no box-score actual. Model home win 51%. The pp values reconcile to the edge alongside a +1.5 pp home-field baseline.
Pre-game lean · box-score result · v2.2 win-prob attribution. Read-only review — it explains the existing prediction, it does not change it.
Arizona Diamondbacks holds a 9.9-pt model edge (Arizona Diamondbacks 51.8 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 41.9). Confidence 74% (medium data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
D-backs lead 7–3Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games
Still gathering — this fills in as the season progresses.