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Implied probabilities are derived from each source's listed prices with the built-in margin removed, so the two sides of a game sum to 100%. Differences are shown in percentage points versus the pre-computed multi-source consensus. Informational comparison only — this is not advice.
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Final
Line score not available yet.
What changed after first pitch.
Result
White Sox won · Guardians 3, White Sox 5
Pregame edge
Guardians · missed
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
53% to Win
The Guardians enter tonight with an opponent missing key regulars and the stronger starting-pitching matchup. The White Sox hold home-field advantage, but NYX still gives Guardians the edge on overall matchup quality.
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
White Sox also brings
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
NYX favored the Cleveland Guardians (53%), but Chicago White Sox won 5–3 — their offense didn't hold up; the v2.2 engine credited starting pitching most (+29.7 pp). A shocking result — more than 82% of comparable v2.2 finals.
Biggest factors
Runs 3–5 · Hits 5–6 · Errors 0–1Home Advantage
Guardians has handled the road well this season (50%). White Sox brings real power upside at the plate, but Guardians looks better positioned, led by the bats and pitching depth.
Key Drivers
What Could Flip It
Home starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Each factor shows the model’s pre-game lean (bar), what the box score said happened (chip: delivered / backfired / overcame), and — when a v2.2 snapshot exists — its win-probability weight (pp toward the pick). Home Field & Health have no box-score actual. Model home win 45%. The pp values reconcile to the edge alongside a +1.5 pp home-field baseline.
Pre-game lean · box-score result · v2.2 win-prob attribution. Read-only review — it explains the existing prediction, it does not change it.
Cleveland Guardians holds a 9.1-pt model edge (Chicago White Sox 37.7 vs Cleveland Guardians 46.8). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
White Sox lead 6–4Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games
Still gathering — this fills in as the season progresses.