Scheduled
CINStarter
Lodolo
vs--Local Time
CWSStarter
Burke
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
Even Matchup
52% to Win
The White Sox enter tonight with a strong home-field edge and the stronger starting-pitching matchup. The Reds bring a rested bullpen, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Toss-Up
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Reds also brings
- •Lower bullpen fatigue
Prediction updated: 21h ago · Data may be staleNYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward ValidatedLineups: PendingStarters: Confirmed
Prediction stale
Why NYX Sees the Edge
- ✓Strong home-field advantage
- ✓Better starter projection
- ✓Better recent form
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read48%
- Initial Read45%
- Initial Read45%
- Initial Read45%
- Initial Read45%
- Initial Read45%
- Initial Read45%
- Initial Read45%
Home Advantage
White Sox home62%36–22
Reds road47%27–30
Home Edge+15
Team Story
White Sox has been the stronger side at home this season (62%). Reds counters with a capable starter, but White Sox holds the stronger overall profile.
Game Notes
- •Colson Montgomery leads the White Sox with 26 HR
- •Sal Stewart leads the Reds with 25 HR
- •Chase Meidroth leads the White Sox with 114 hits
- •Sal Stewart leads the Reds with 113 hits
- •Miguel Vargas ranks #19 in MLB in HR (24)
Reds @ White Sox
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Starting Pitching+35
- Run Prevention+20
- Bullpen+16
- Offense+9
- Context & Health+9
What Could Flip It
- •If Cincinnati Reds run prevention delivers, it could swing the game
- •If Cincinnati Reds bullpen delivers, it could swing the game
- •Offense is near-even and could decide it
Overall MatchupRedsWhite Sox
54
54
Matchup Scorecard
42
Starting Pitching
77
82
Bullpen
66
37
Offense
28
58
Run Prevention
38
48
Context & Health
39
Home starter
Sean Burke
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Nick Lodolo
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Injury Report
Reds
7 on the IL- 1BSpencer Steer10-Day IL· 69 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-07-27
- PGraham Ashcraft60-Day IL· 63 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-05-29
- CFBlake Dunn60-Day IL· 59 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-06-27
- PHunter Greene15-Day IL· 57 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-08-02
- PTony Santillan15-Day IL· 48 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-06-23
- PNick Lodolo15-Day IL· 45 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-07-12
- PBrandon Williamson60-Day IL· 25 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-04-30
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
White Sox
10 on the IL- LFTanner Murray60-Day IL· 54 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-04-27
- PJordan Leasure60-Day IL· 50 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-05-29
- PChris Murphy15-Day IL· 50 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-08-07
- CJoey Bart10-Day IL· 42 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-08-07
- CKyle Teel10-Day IL· 26 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-07-21
- LFBrooks Baldwin60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PDrew Thorpe60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PKy Bush60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PMike Vasil60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PPrelander Berroa60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Chicago White Sox holds a 15.6-pt model edge (Chicago White Sox 53.2 vs Cincinnati Reds 37.7). Confidence 74% (medium data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Cincinnati Reds
form 17OPS.643
AVG.196
OBP.269
SLG.374
ISO.179
HR9
K%27.9%
BB%8.5%
Runs20