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| Implied probability | White Sox (Home) | Rangers (Away) | Home | Away | Probability difference | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYX model | 52.0% | 48.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Market ConsensusMedian of 4 sources · range 0.3 pp | 53.3% | 46.7% | — | — | -1.3 pp | Updated 1h agoAging |
| DraftKings | 53.4% | 46.6% | -119 | +111 | -1.4 pp | Updated 1h agoAging |
| FanDuel | 53.4% | 46.6% | -120 | +110 | -1.4 pp | Updated 1h agoAging |
| KalshiPrediction marketNot shown — data-source review pending | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Broad agreement·-1.3 pp
NYX and the current market consensus broadly agree on this game (1.3 percentage points apart on the White Sox).
Implied probabilities are derived from each source's listed prices with the built-in margin removed, so the two sides of a game sum to 100%. Differences are shown in percentage points versus the pre-computed multi-source consensus. Informational comparison only — this is not advice.
Odds and market prices are provided for informational comparison. Third-party names and trademarks belong to their respective owners. NYX AETHER is not affiliated with or endorsed by the listed operators.
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
52% to Win
The White Sox enter tonight with a strong home-field edge and the stronger starting-pitching matchup. The Rangers are swinging hot bats, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Rangers also brings
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
Home Advantage
White Sox has been the stronger side at home this season (60%). Rangers brings real power upside at the plate, but White Sox enters with the edge on pitching depth and home context.
Key Drivers
Chicago White Sox holds a 15.9-pt model edge (Chicago White Sox 60.2 vs Texas Rangers 44.3). Confidence 64% (medium data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
White Sox lead 2–1Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games
What Could Flip It
Home starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Still gathering — this fills in as the season progresses.