Postponed
DETStarter
Mize
vs--Local Time
CLEStarter
Williams
NYX Live Trend
Trend begins at first pitch.
Model-based game control score derived from live play-by-play. Not betting odds.
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
NYX Win Edge
Tigers 54% to Win
Slight EdgeProjected
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Guardians also brings
- •Better starter projection
- •Better bullpen quality
- •Lower bullpen fatigue
- •Home field
Why we like Tigers
- ✓Better recent form
- ✓Better offensive production
- ✓Higher overall matchup score
- ✓High model confidence
- ✓Model projects the overall edge
Home Advantage
Guardians home53%19–17
Tigers road30%11–26
Home Edge+23
Team Story
Tigers comes in playing steady baseball lately. Guardians can lean on a deeper bullpen, but the matchup leans Tigers on the bats.
Game Notes
- •Angel Martínez leads the Guardians with 11 HR
- •Dillon Dingler leads the Tigers with 16 HR
- •José Ramírez leads the Guardians with 64 hits
- •Riley Greene leads the Tigers with 76 hits
- •Guardians are 19–17 at home this season
Overall MatchupTigersGuardians
73
56
Matchup Scorecard
TigersGuardians
8250
Starting Pitching
7682
Bullpen
7027
Offense
7254
Run Prevention
5464
Context & Health
Tigers @ Guardians
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Starting PitchingTigers -8.2
- OffenseTigers -7.6
- Run PreventionTigers -2.3
- BullpenGuardians +1.4
- Home AdvantageGuardians +1.0
What Could Flip It
- •If Cleveland Guardians home & environment delivers, it could swing the game
- •If Cleveland Guardians bullpen delivers, it could swing the game
- •Bullpen is near-even and could decide it
Prediction Timeline
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- 46%Initial Read
Health & Availability
Tigers★★★★★Full strength
Guardians★★★★★Full strength
Away starter
Casey Mize
ProbableData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Home starter
Gavin Williams
ProbableData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Matchup Edge
high dataconf 88%
Cleveland Guardians (home)vsDetroit Tigers (away)
Detroit Tigers edge +5.1
Detroit Tigers holds a 5.1-pt model edge (Cleveland Guardians 52.9 vs Detroit Tigers 58.0). Confidence 88% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Each score is 0–100, higher = stronger side. Left value / bar = Cleveland Guardians (home), right value = Detroit Tigers (away).
61Starter46
Probable starter's recent form & expected runs — model weight 25%.
11Batting75
Lineup run production (OPS / xwOBA basis) — model weight 25%.
76Bullpen69
Detroit Tigers holds a 5.1-pt model edge (Cleveland Guardians 52.9 vs Detroit Tigers 58.0). Confidence 88% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Limited recent H2H historyTigers
LL
Guardians
WW
Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games