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Implied probabilities are derived from each source's listed prices with the built-in margin removed, so the two sides of a game sum to 100%. Differences are shown in percentage points versus the pre-computed multi-source consensus. Informational comparison only — this is not advice.
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Final
Line score not available yet.
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Cubs won · Cubs 10, Royals 2
Pregame edge
Cubs · held up
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
59% to Win
The Cubs enter tonight with an opponent missing key regulars and the deeper bullpen. The Royals counter with a strong starter, but NYX still gives Cubs the edge on overall matchup quality.
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Royals also brings
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals
NYX had the Chicago Cubs (53%), and they won 10–2 — their offense delivered; the v2.2 engine credited starting pitching most (+3.7 pp).
Biggest factors
Runs 10–2 · Hits 18–6 · Errors 0–0Home Advantage
Cubs has handled the road well this season (57%). Royals counters with a capable starter, but Cubs looks better positioned, led by the bats and the bullpen edge.
Key Drivers
What Could Flip It
Home starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Each factor shows the model’s pre-game lean (bar), what the box score said happened (chip: delivered / backfired / overcame), and — when a v2.2 snapshot exists — its win-probability weight (pp toward the pick). Home Field & Health have no box-score actual. Model home win 47%. The pp values reconcile to the edge alongside a +1.5 pp home-field baseline.
Pre-game lean · box-score result · v2.2 win-prob attribution. Read-only review — it explains the existing prediction, it does not change it.
Chicago Cubs holds a 5.5-pt model edge (Kansas City Royals 49.2 vs Chicago Cubs 54.7). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Cubs lead 2–1Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games
Still gathering — this fills in as the season progresses.