Arizona Diamondbacks @ Miami Marlins
PreMatchup Edge
Miami Marlins holds a 14.4-pt model edge (Miami Marlins 50.7 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 36.3). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Each score is 0–100, higher = stronger side. Left value / bar = Miami Marlins (home), right value = Arizona Diamondbacks (away).
Probable starter's recent form & expected runs — model weight 25%.
Lineup run production (OPS / xwOBA basis) — model weight 25%.
Relief corps: recent fatigue (50%), ERA (30%), WHIP (20%) — model weight 20%.
Weighted blend — starter 25 · pressure 15 · batting 25 · bullpen 20 · home 5 · data 10.
Analysis edge — not betting advice.
Ryne Nelson
form 29Ryan Gusto
form 30Stress Situation Performance (Pressure Score)
Pressure Score is a baseball analytics metric derived from public play-by-play and pitch-level data. It does not measure a player's actual mental health or psychology.
Ryne Nelson · Pressure
Proxy pressure index — analytics only, not a psychological measure.
Proxy pressure index — analytics only, not a psychological measure.
Ryne Nelson · situation splits (30d)
| Situation | PA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | XBH% | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High pressure | 6 | .356 | 16.7% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 0.0% | 33 |
| RISP | 5 | .308 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 17.6% | 0.0% | 53 |
| 2-out RISP | 3 | .171 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% | 68 |
| Late & close | 5 | .362 | 20.0% | 20.0% | 16.7% | 0.0% | 34 |
| Full count | 6 | .552 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 16.7% | 16.7% | 13 |
| After hit/walk | 15 | .221 | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 59 |
Ryan Gusto · situation splits (30d)
| Situation | PA | xwOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | XBH% | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High pressure | 4 | .534 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 33 |
| RISP | 8 | .421 | 0.0% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 12.5% | 16 |
| 2-out RISP | 2 | .670 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 27 |
| Late & close | 4 | .534 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 33 |
| After hit/walk | 9 | .425 | 0.0% | 11.1% | 7.7% | 0.0% | 21 |
Ryne Nelson arsenal
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Spin | Whiff% | CSW% | PutAway% | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 58.0% | 96.6 | 2262 | 14.3% | 18.8% | 6.5% | .302 |
| Slider | 18.6% | 89.1 | 2360 | 5.0% | 11.1% | 6.3% | .359 |
| Cutter | 12.4% | 93.3 | 2178 | 20.0% | 20.8% | 0.0% | .700 |
| Curveball | 8.8% | 81.4 | 2692 | 14.3% | 11.8% | 0.0% | .580 |
| Sinker | 2.1% | 95.6 | 2037 | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | 1.000 |
Ryan Gusto arsenal
| Pitch | Usage | Velo | Spin | Whiff% | CSW% | PutAway% | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam Fastball | 37.0% | 94.1 | 2407 | 18.2% | 29.6% | 16.7% | .360 |
| Cutter | 19.2% | 89.6 | 2375 | 9.1% | 14.3% | 0.0% | .325 |
| Changeup | 13.7% | 87.5 | 1309 | 0.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | .300 |
| Sinker | 12.3% | 92.7 | 2178 | 0.0% | 11.1% | — | .600 |
| Slider | 11.0% | 86.6 | 2458 | 50.0% | 25.0% | 40.0% | .625 |
| Curveball | 4.1% | 80.1 | 2527 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | — |
| Sweeper | 2.7% | 81.6 | 2537 | — | 50.0% | — | — |