Scheduled
PITStarter
Skenes
vs--Local Time
MIAStarter
Pérez
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
Even Matchup
52% to Win
The Marlins enter tonight with a strong home-field edge and the stronger starting-pitching matchup. NYX reads this matchup as essentially even tonight.
Toss-Up
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Prediction updated: 21h ago · Data may be staleNYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward ValidatedLineups: PendingStarters: Confirmed
Prediction stale
Why NYX Sees the Edge
- ✓Strong home-field advantage
- ✓Better starter projection
- ✓Better bullpen quality
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
Home Advantage
Marlins home60%36–24
Pirates road47%28–32
Home Edge+13
Team Story
Marlins has been the stronger side at home this season (60%). Pirates can lean on a deeper bullpen, but Marlins looks better positioned, led by pitching depth and the bullpen edge.
Game Notes
- •Kyle Stowers leads the Marlins with 16 HR
- •Brandon Lowe leads the Pirates with 25 HR
- •Otto Lopez leads the Marlins with 147 hits
- •Nick Gonzales leads the Pirates with 133 hits
- •Xavier Edwards ranks #22 in MLB in AVG (.284)
Pirates @ Marlins
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Run Prevention+15
- Bullpen+13
- Context & Health+12
- Offense+8
What Could Flip It
- •If Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen delivers, it could swing the game
- •Starting Pitching is near-even and could decide it
Overall MatchupPiratesMarlins
63
65
Matchup Scorecard
85
Starting Pitching
85
87
Bullpen
74
27
Offense
35
50
Run Prevention
65
36
Context & Health
48
Home starter
Eury Pérez
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Paul Skenes
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Injury Report
Pirates
4 on the IL- CFOneil Cruz60-Day IL· 82 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-06-08
- RFRyan O'Hearn10-Day IL· 74 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-08-01
- SSKonnor Griffin60-Day IL· 69 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-07-06
- PMitch Keller60-Day IL· 50 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-08-03
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Marlins
7 on the IL- PMax Meyer15-Day IL· 83 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-07-19
- PAnthony Bender15-Day IL· 82 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-06-30
- PAndrew Nardi60-Day IL· 68 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-05-28
- PAdam Mazur60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PRobby Snelling60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PRonny Henriquez60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PWilliam Kempner15-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Miami Marlins holds a 23.4-pt model edge (Miami Marlins 68.6 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 45.2). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Marlins lead 2–1Pirates
LWL
Marlins
WLW
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