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Implied probabilities are derived from each source's listed prices with the built-in margin removed, so the two sides of a game sum to 100%. Differences are shown in percentage points versus the pre-computed multi-source consensus. Informational comparison only — this is not advice.
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Final
Line score not available yet.
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Twins won · Orioles 5, Twins 9
Pregame edge
Twins · held up
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
52% to Win
The Twins enter tonight with an opponent missing key regulars and a strong home-field edge. The Orioles counter with a strong starter, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Orioles also brings
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins
NYX had the Minnesota Twins (51%), and they won 9–5 — they won despite a soft offense lean. A notable result — more than 44% of comparable v2.2 finals.
Biggest factors
Runs 9–5 · Hits 14–7 · Errors 0–1Home Advantage
Twins has been the stronger side at home this season (53%). Orioles counters with a capable starter, but Twins holds the stronger overall profile.
Key Drivers
What Could Flip It
Home starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Current-season impact proxy — season-to-date value, not an injury-date snapshot. Context only, not predictive. Many players (incl. most pitchers) have no score yet and show Unknown.
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Each factor shows the model’s pre-game lean (bar), what the box score said happened (chip: delivered / backfired / overcame), and — when a v2.2 snapshot exists — its win-probability weight (pp toward the pick). Home Field & Health have no box-score actual. Model home win 51%. The pp values reconcile to the edge alongside a +1.5 pp home-field baseline.
Pre-game lean · box-score result · v2.2 win-prob attribution. Read-only review — it explains the existing prediction, it does not change it.
Baltimore Orioles holds a 17.0-pt model edge (Minnesota Twins 45.3 vs Baltimore Orioles 62.3). Confidence 85% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Limited recent H2H historyOldest → most recent · completed MLB games
Still gathering — this fills in as the season progresses.