Scheduled
SEAStarter
Woo
vs--Local Time
NYYStarter
Weathers
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
Even Matchup
52% to Win
The Yankees enter tonight with a strong home-field edge and the deeper bullpen. The Mariners counter with a strong starter, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Toss-Up
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Mariners also brings
- •Better starter projection
Prediction updated: 21h ago · Data may be staleNYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward ValidatedLineups: PendingStarters: Confirmed
Prediction stale
Why NYX Sees the Edge
- ✓Strong home-field advantage
- ✓Better bullpen quality
- ✓Lower bullpen fatigue
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read52%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
- Initial Read56%
Home Advantage
Yankees home53%29–26
Mariners road40%23–34
Home Edge+12
Team Story
Yankees has been the stronger side at home this season (53%). Mariners counters with a capable starter, but the matchup leans Yankees on the bullpen edge and the bats.
Game Notes
- •Ben Rice leads the Yankees with 32 HR
- •Julio Rodríguez leads the Mariners with 18 HR
- •Ben Rice leads the Yankees with 108 hits
- •Cole Young leads the Mariners with 115 hits
- •Luis García Jr. ranks #19 in MLB in HR (24)
Mariners @ Yankees
NYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward Validated
Key Drivers
- Run Prevention+24
- Context & Health+16
- Starting Pitching+14
- Offense+11
- Bullpen+8
What Could Flip It
- •If Seattle Mariners starting pitching delivers, it could swing the game
- •If Seattle Mariners bullpen delivers, it could swing the game
- •Bullpen is near-even and could decide it
Overall MatchupMarinersYankees
64
65
Matchup Scorecard
78
Starting Pitching
64
74
Bullpen
66
40
Offense
51
57
Run Prevention
81
55
Context & Health
71
Home starter
Ryan Weathers
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Bryan Woo
ConfirmedData quality: Medium
▸Show stats
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Injury Report
Mariners
9 on the IL- RFLuke Raley10-Day IL· 71 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-07-31
- SSJ.P. Crawford10-Day IL· 55 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-07-30
- PMatt Brash15-Day IL· 53 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-06-09
- PCooper Criswell60-Day IL· 52 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-06-09
- PGabe SpeierSuspended· 46 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-05-03
- PCole Wilcox15-Day IL· 32 · Low Impact· at injury date 2026-08-07
- PCarlos Vargas60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- PLogan Evans60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
- 3BWill Wilson60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Yankees
5 on the IL- RFAaron Judge60-Day IL· 91 · Elite Impact· at injury date 2026-07-18
- LFCody Bellinger10-Day IL· 70 · High Impact· at injury date 2026-07-26
- PCarlos Rodón15-Day IL· 63 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-06-30
- DHGiancarlo Stanton10-Day IL· 53 · Medium Impact· at injury date 2026-04-25
- PClarke Schmidt60-Day IL· Unknown Impact
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
New York Yankees holds a 13.6-pt model edge (New York Yankees 58.0 vs Seattle Mariners 44.4). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Seattle Mariners
form 0OPS.556
AVG.195
OBP.259
SLG.297
ISO.103
HR5
K%21.9%
BB%6.5%
Runs8