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No market quotes are stored for this game yet. This section fills in once market data collection is running — nothing is estimated in the meantime.
Implied probabilities are derived from each source's listed prices with the built-in margin removed, so the two sides of a game sum to 100%. Differences are shown in percentage points versus the pre-computed multi-source consensus. Informational comparison only — this is not advice.
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Final
Line score not available yet.
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Phillies won · Blue Jays 6, Phillies 7
Pregame edge
Phillies · held up
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
68% to Win
The Phillies enter tonight with an opponent missing key regulars and the stronger starting-pitching matchup. NYX gives Phillies the edge on overall matchup quality.
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies
NYX had the Philadelphia Phillies (67%), and they won 7–6 — their offense delivered; the v2.2 engine credited starting pitching most (+18 pp).
Biggest factors
Runs 7–6 · Hits 10–10 · Errors 1–0Home Advantage
Phillies comes in playing steady baseball lately. Blue Jays counters with a capable starter, but Phillies has the more favorable setup on the bats and the bullpen edge.
Key Drivers
What Could Flip It
Home starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Away starter
Season stats unavailable
Arsenal unavailable
Source: MLB schedule
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Impact at injury date — the player's value as of his IL placement, frozen at that date. Context only, not predictive, not an engine input.
Each factor shows the model’s pre-game lean (bar), what the box score said happened (chip: delivered / backfired / overcame), and — when a v2.2 snapshot exists — its win-probability weight (pp toward the pick). Home Field & Health have no box-score actual. Model home win 69%. The pp values reconcile to the edge alongside a +1.5 pp home-field baseline.
Pre-game lean · box-score result · v2.2 win-prob attribution. Read-only review — it explains the existing prediction, it does not change it.
Philadelphia Phillies holds a 37.8-pt model edge (Philadelphia Phillies 69.0 vs Toronto Blue Jays 31.2). Confidence 74% (medium data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.
Last 10 Meetings
Series tied 3–3Oldest → most recent · completed MLB games
Still gathering — this fills in as the season progresses.