Final
NYM11–1
Final
PITLine score not available yet.
Postgame Review
What changed after first pitch.
Result
Mets won · Mets 11, Pirates 1
Pregame edge
Pirates · missed
Pregame Snapshot
Before first pitch, NYX expected…
Even Matchup
51% to Win
The Pirates enter tonight with the deeper bullpen and a more rested bullpen. The Mets counter with a strong starter, leaving NYX to call it essentially even.
Toss-UpConfirmed
Updated after confirmed lineups. Model-based estimate, not betting odds.
Mets also brings
- •Better starter projection
- •Better recent form
Prediction updated: 21h ago · Data may be staleNYX Engine v2.2Walk-Forward ValidatedLineups: ConfirmedStarters: Probable
Prediction stale
Why NYX Sees the Edge
- ✓Better bullpen quality
- ✓Lower bullpen fatigue
- ✓Home field
What Changed
How the NYX read moved before first pitch.
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
- Initial Read51%
Top Offensive Performers
- MetsBo Bichette5-5 · 2 2B · 3 RBI
- MetsCarson Benge2-5 · 1 RBI
- PiratesBryan Reynolds1-3 · 1 2B
- MetsMarcus Semien1-4 · 1 RBI
Prediction Review
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Missed
We said: Pittsburgh Pirates 52%
Result: New York Mets won 11–1
NYX favored the Pittsburgh Pirates (52%), but New York Mets won 11–1 — their bullpen didn't hold up; the v2.2 engine credited offense most (-3.6 pp). A surprising result — more than 71% of comparable v2.2 finals.
Surprisesurprisingmore surprising than 71% of v2.2 finals
Biggest factors
Runs 1–11 · Hits 4–15 · Errors 1–0Offense
as expected-3.6 pp
Starting Pitching
as expected