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Matchup Scorecard — Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres
Chase Burns vs Lucas GiolitoEdge: Cincinnati Reds +9.8LOWCincinnati Reds lineup holds the matchup edge (+9.82). Based on pitch-type fit + limited 1:1 history.
Small historical sample: pitch-type profile and recent form are weighted more heavily. Lineups shown as confirmed_lineup / probable_lineup / roster_proxy.
Chase Burns vs San Diego Padres lineup
vs Chase Burns · lineup: confirmed_lineup
| # | Batter | PA | AVG | OPS | xwOBA | K% | Pitcher weapon | Danger pitch | Edge | Conf | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 3 | .667 | 1.667 | .546 | 0.0% | Slider | 4-Seam Fastball | Batter edge | 40% | SMALL |
| 2 | Jackson Merrill | 3 | .333 | 1.333 | .283 | 33.3% | Slider | — | Neutral | 40% | SMALL |
| 3 | Manny Machado | 3 | .333 | .667 | .106 | 0.0% | Slider | 4-Seam Fastball | Pitcher edge | 40% | SMALL |
| 4 | Gavin Sheets | 3 | .000 | .000 | .017 | 66.7% | Slider | 4-Seam Fastball | Pitcher edge | 40% | SMALL |
| 5 | Ty France | 0 | — | — | — | — | Slider | Slider | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 6 | Samad Taylor | 3 | .500 | 1.667 | .533 | 33.3% | Slider | Slider | Neutral | 40% | SMALL |
| 7 | Jase Bowen | 0 | — | — | — | — | Slider | — | No data | 20% | TINY |
| 8 | Freddy Fermin | 2 | .000 | .000 | .247 | 0.0% | Slider | 4-Seam Fastball | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 9 | Sung-Mun Song | 2 | .000 | .000 | .000 | 100.0% | Slider | — | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
Lucas Giolito vs Cincinnati Reds lineup
vs Lucas Giolito · lineup: confirmed_lineup
| # | Batter | PA | AVG | OPS | xwOBA | K% | Pitcher weapon | Danger pitch | Edge | Conf | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blake Dunn | 3 | .000 | .333 | .385 | 33.3% | Slider | — | Pitcher edge | 40% | SMALL |
| 2 | JJ Bleday | 3 | .333 | .667 | .316 | 0.0% | Slider | 4-Seam Fastball | Neutral | 40% | SMALL |
| 3 | Sal Stewart | 2 | — | — | .701 | 0.0% | Slider | — | Batter edge | 20% | TINY |
| 4 | Dane Myers | 0 | — | — | — | — | Slider | — | No data | 20% | TINY |
| 5 | Spencer Steer | 2 | .000 | .000 | .134 | 0.0% | Slider | Slider | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
| 6 | Will Benson | 0 | — | — | — | — | Slider | — | No data | 20% | TINY |
| 7 | Matt McLain | 2 | .000 | .500 | .375 | 0.0% | Slider | — | Neutral | 20% | TINY |
| 8 | P.J. Higgins | 0 | — | — | — | — | Slider | — | No data | 20% | TINY |
| 9 | Edwin Arroyo | 2 | .000 | .000 | .059 | 50.0% | Slider | — | Pitcher edge | 20% | TINY |
Pitch-type breakdown
Chase Burns vs
No pitch-type history for this pairing.
Lucas Giolito vs
No pitch-type history for this pairing.
Bullpen vs lineup (highest risk first)
| Reliever | Batter | PA | OPS | xwOBA | Arsenal | Batter weak vs | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tejay Antone | Samad Taylor | 3 | 2.000 | .327 | ST 51%, FC 26%, SI 9% | 4-Seam Fastball | HIGH |
| Sam Moll | Jackson Merrill | 1 | 2.000 | .247 | SI 37%, ST 36%, CH 15% | — | MEDIUM |
| Tejay Antone | Jase Bowen | 3 | 1.333 | .195 | ST 51%, FC 26%, SI 9% | — | MEDIUM |
| Zach McCambley | Freddy Fermin | 1 | 2.000 | .872 | FC 54%, FF 23%, ST 19% | Knuckle Curve | MEDIUM |
| Zach McCambley | Jase Bowen | 1 | 2.000 | .787 | FC 54%, FF 23%, ST 19% | — | MEDIUM |
| Zach McCambley | Samad Taylor | 1 | 2.000 | .786 | FC 54%, FF 23%, ST 19% | 4-Seam Fastball | MEDIUM |
| Zach McCambley | Gavin Sheets | 1 | .000 | .654 | FC 54%, FF 23%, ST 19% | Changeup | MEDIUM |
| Sam Moll | Gavin Sheets | 1 | .000 | .000 | SI 37%, ST 36%, CH 15% | Changeup | LOW |
| Sam Moll | Manny Machado | 1 | .000 | .000 | SI 37%, ST 36%, CH 15% | Curveball | LOW |
| Tejay Antone | Ty France | 3 | .000 | .356 | ST 51%, FC 26%, SI 9% | 4-Seam Fastball | LOW |
| Tejay Antone | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2 | .000 | .017 | ST 51%, FC 26%, SI 9% | Changeup | LOW |
| Tejay Antone | Jackson Merrill | 2 | .000 | .256 | ST 51%, FC 26%, SI 9% | — | LOW |
| Tejay Antone | Freddy Fermin | 3 | .000 | .224 | ST 51%, FC 26%, SI 9% | Knuckle Curve | LOW |
| Zach McCambley | Manny Machado | 1 | .000 | .032 | FC 54%, FF 23%, ST 19% | Curveball | LOW |
| Zach McCambley | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 1 | .000 | .176 | FC 54%, FF 23%, ST 19% | Changeup | LOW |
| Brock Burke | Jackson Merrill | 0 | — | — | FF 42%, SL 31%, CH 13% | — | UNKNOWN |
| Brock Burke | Manny Machado | 0 | — | — | FF 42%, SL 31%, CH 13% | Curveball | UNKNOWN |
| Brock Burke | Gavin Sheets | 0 | — | — | FF 42%, SL 31%, CH 13% | Changeup | UNKNOWN |
| Brock Burke | Ty France | 0 | — | — | FF 42%, SL 31%, CH 13% | 4-Seam Fastball | UNKNOWN |
| Brock Burke | Samad Taylor | 0 | — | — | FF 42%, SL 31%, CH 13% | 4-Seam Fastball | UNKNOWN |
| Brock Burke | Jase Bowen | 0 | — | — | FF 42%, SL 31%, CH 13% | — | UNKNOWN |
| Brock Burke | Freddy Fermin | 0 | — | — | FF 42%, SL 31%, CH 13% | Knuckle Curve | UNKNOWN |
| Brock Burke | Sung-Mun Song | 0 | — | — | FF 42%, SL 31%, CH 13% | — | UNKNOWN |
| Brock Burke | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 0 | — | — | FF 42%, SL 31%, CH 13% | Changeup | UNKNOWN |
| David Morgan | Blake Dunn | 0 | — | — | SL 50%, FF 26%, CU 12% | — | UNKNOWN |
| David Morgan | JJ Bleday | 0 | — | — | SL 50%, FF 26%, CU 12% | Sweeper | UNKNOWN |
| David Morgan | Sal Stewart | 0 | — | — | SL 50%, FF 26%, CU 12% | — | UNKNOWN |
| David Morgan | Dane Myers | 0 | — | — | SL 50%, FF 26%, CU 12% | — | UNKNOWN |
| David Morgan | Spencer Steer | 0 | — | — | SL 50%, FF 26%, CU 12% | 4-Seam Fastball | UNKNOWN |
| David Morgan | Will Benson | 0 | — | — | SL 50%, FF 26%, CU 12% | — | UNKNOWN |
| David Morgan | Matt McLain | 0 | — | — | SL 50%, FF 26%, CU 12% | — | UNKNOWN |
| David Morgan | P.J. Higgins | 0 | — | — | SL 50%, FF 26%, CU 12% | — | UNKNOWN |
| David Morgan | Edwin Arroyo | 0 | — | — | SL 50%, FF 26%, CU 12% | — | UNKNOWN |
| Ron Marinaccio | Edwin Arroyo | 0 | — | — | CH 41%, FF 25%, FC 20% | — | UNKNOWN |
| Ron Marinaccio | P.J. Higgins | 0 | — | — | CH 41%, FF 25%, FC 20% | — | UNKNOWN |
| Ron Marinaccio | Matt McLain | 0 | — | — | CH 41%, FF 25%, FC 20% | — | UNKNOWN |
| Ron Marinaccio | Will Benson | 0 | — | — | CH 41%, FF 25%, FC 20% | — | UNKNOWN |
| Ron Marinaccio | Spencer Steer | 0 | — | — | CH 41%, FF 25%, FC 20% | 4-Seam Fastball | UNKNOWN |
| Ron Marinaccio | Dane Myers | 0 | — | — | CH 41%, FF 25%, FC 20% | — | UNKNOWN |
| Ron Marinaccio | Sal Stewart | 0 | — | — | CH 41%, FF 25%, FC 20% | — | UNKNOWN |
Top 3 hitter advantages
Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Chase Burns
61Batter edge
Sal Stewart vs Lucas Giolito
60Batter edge
JJ Bleday vs Lucas Giolito
57Neutral
Top 3 pitcher advantages
Chase Burns vs Gavin Sheets85
Chase Burns vs Sung-Mun Song79
Lucas Giolito vs Spencer Steer73