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Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres

Final

Petco Park

Cincinnati Reds5

San Diego Padres3

Bottom 11

Game data: 50m ago

Matchup Edge

high dataconf 100%

San Diego Padres (home)vsCincinnati Reds (away)

Cincinnati Reds edge +15.4

Cincinnati Reds holds a 15.4-pt model edge (San Diego Padres 40.5 vs Cincinnati Reds 55.9). Confidence 100% (high data). Analysis edge only — not betting advice.

Each score is 0–100, higher = stronger side. Left value / bar = San Diego Padres (home), right value = Cincinnati Reds (away).

40Starter70

Probable starter's recent form & expected runs — model weight 25%.

0Batting45

Lineup run production (OPS / xwOBA basis) — model weight 25%.

56Bullpen34

Relief corps: recent fatigue (50%), ERA (30%), WHIP (20%) — model weight 20%.

41Total56

Weighted blend — starter 25 · pressure 15 · batting 25 · bullpen 20 · home 5 · data 10.

BASES_LOADED_RISKCOMMAND_RISKHIGH_PRESSURE_WALK_RATEWalk riskMELTDOWN_PRONE

Analysis edge — not betting advice.

Chase Burns

form 70

last 15 days · 203 pitches

Velo94.3

Velo Δ0.0

Spin2678

Whiff%30.6%

CSW%28.1%

xwOBA.302

K%33.3%

BB%6.3%

HardHit%24.1%

No flags

Lucas Giolito

form 44

last 15 days · 237 pitches

Velo84.2

Velo Δ0.0

Spin1873

Whiff%27.4%

CSW%26.6%

xwOBA.431

K%16.7%

BB%18.5%

HardHit%30.8%

Walk risk

Stress Situation Performance (Pressure Score)

Pressure Score is a baseball analytics metric derived from public play-by-play and pitch-level data. It does not measure a player's actual mental health or psychology.

Chase Burns · Pressure

76MEDIUM

last 15d · 48 pressure PA · conf 75%

High-Press PA3

RISP xwOBA.272

Late&Close PA0

K%33.3%

BB%6.3%

Whiff%30.6%

Shutdown/Melt3/0

Strike%61.6%

CSW%28.1%

No flags

Proxy pressure index — analytics only, not a psychological measure.

Lucas Giolito · Pressure

32GOOD

last 15d · 54 pressure PA · conf 100%

High-Press PA8

RISP xwOBA.369

Late&Close PA0

K%16.7%

BB%18.5%

Whiff%27.4%

Shutdown/Melt3/5

Strike%55.7%

CSW%26.6%

Bases-loaded riskCommand riskPressure walksMeltdown-prone

Proxy pressure index — analytics only, not a psychological measure.

Chase Burns · situation splits (30d)

Situation	PA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	XBH%	Score
High pressure	3	.045	33.3%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	83
RISP	11	.061	36.4%	0.0%	29.6%	0.0%	86
2-out RISP	5	.046	20.0%	0.0%	30.8%	0.0%	80
Full count	9	.198	33.3%	11.1%	22.2%	0.0%	78
After hit/walk	12	.434	16.7%	8.3%	16.0%	25.0%	21

Lucas Giolito · situation splits (30d)

Situation	PA	xwOBA	K%	BB%	Whiff%	XBH%	Score
High pressure	8	.440	25.0%	12.5%	22.2%	12.5%	19
RISP	14	.379	14.3%	14.3%	20.0%	7.1%	20
2-out RISP	8	.349	0.0%	12.5%	18.2%	0.0%	33
Bases loaded	3	.092	33.3%	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	69
Full count	10	.539	30.0%	40.0%	37.5%	10.0%	24
After hit/walk	21	.455	9.5%	19.1%	20.4%	9.5%	14

Chase Burns arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Spin	Whiff%	CSW%	PutAway%	xwOBA
4-Seam Fastball	53.7%	97.6	2667	13.5%	21.1%	13.8%	.371
Slider	40.4%	90.6	2801	51.2%	36.6%	26.5%	.208
Changeup	5.9%	89.7	1942	40.0%	33.3%	0.0%	.300

Lucas Giolito arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Spin	Whiff%	CSW%	PutAway%	xwOBA
4-Seam Fastball	36.7%	91.0	2140	19.2%	31.0%	8.7%	.600
Changeup	35.4%	79.3	1534	24.4%	28.6%	9.5%	.394
Slider	18.1%	83.7	1814	55.6%	23.3%	22.2%	.000
Curveball	9.3%	76.6	2228	10.0%	9.1%	0.0%	.333

Cincinnati Reds

form 45

last 7 days · 190 PA

OPS.712

AVG.260

OBP.319

SLG.393

ISO.133

HR5

K%23.2%

BB%7.9%

Runs15

San Diego Padres

form 0

last 7 days · 208 PA

OPS.545

AVG.183

OBP.255

SLG.290

ISO.107

HR5

K%21.6%

BB%8.6%

Runs18

Cincinnati Reds

fatigue 31

last 3 days

Relief IP7.0

Relievers7

Pitches139

Back-to-back0

ERA7.71

WHIP1.86

San Diego Padres

fatigue 70

last 3 days

Relief IP13.3

Relievers7

Pitches205

Back-to-back0

ERA3.38

WHIP1.05